10.22.2005
 
Saturday Football
    Filling out the rest of week six, below. I'm borrowing today's NCAA picks from a fellow named Keg. He's doing much better than my 23-30 this season. And if he finishes 0-4 today, I'll kindly apologize for passing on my curse to him and I'll pledge never do it again.

    New York Jets
    TARGETS(catches):
    McCareins- 11(5)
    Coles- 7(4)
    Martin- 2(2)
    Chrebet- 1(1)
    Baker- 1(0)
    Dreesen- 1(0)

    Buffalo Bills:
    TARGETS(catches):
    Moulds- 9(7)
    Evans- 6(3)
    McGahee- 4(3)
    Campbell- 3(2)
    Reed- 1(1)
    Smith- 1(1)
    Peters- 1(1)

    St Louis Rams:
    TARGETS(catches):
    Holt- 8(6)
    Jackson- 6(5)
    Curtis- 5(3)
    Faulk- 4(4)
    Looker- 2(2)
    Manumaluena- 2(1)
    Cleeland- (2)

    Indianapolis Colts:
    TARGETS(catches):
    Wayne- 10(7)
    Harrison- 7(4)
    Stokely- 5(4)
    Clark- 4(3)
    James- 4(3)
    Rhodes- 2(1)

    New England Patriots:
    TARGETS(catches):
    Givens- 13(7)
    Branch- 12(7)
    Pass- 7(6)
    Dwight- 5(1)
    Watson- 4(1)
    Johnson- 1(0)
    Zereoue- 1(1)
    Graham- ???

    Denver Broncos:
    TARGETS(catches):
    Smith- 7(6)
    Lelie- 4(3)
    Putzier- 4(3)
    Bell- 4(3)
    Johnson- 2(1)
    Adams- 1(0)
    Alexander- 1(1)

10.20.2005
 
Thursday Football
    The Week 7 Mirl Picks are out. I have a feeling that Houston pick from last week is going to cost me big time.

    I'd like to also call out all these people who keep picking double digit favorites as their best bets. Guys, try picking someone besides the Colts and/or whoever is playing the Texans/49ers. So far this year, I've gone with KC, PIT, IND, JAX (loser), GB, and CAR as my best bets. And this week I reluctantly like Atlanta at home on Monday night (I'd rather pick a team that wasn't such a favorite, but I'm still the lone Atlanta best better- not all the picks have been posted yet though). I was tempted to go with the Steelers, but Ben Burger's health left me with some doubt. That's going to be one heck of a game.

    Atlanta Falcons
    The Falcons need to be worried about their run defense. Maybe they're missing Hartwell's presence in the middle, but for the second week in a row they were gashed by an opponents' ground game. Lucky for them, they get to face a banged up Jets team this week on Monday night before going into their bye week. Were it not for their fantastic special teams, the Falcons would have probably been blown out in this game.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Crumpler- 7(4)
    DWhite- 4(0)
    Jenkins- 3(2)
    Dunn- 2(2)
    Griffith- 2(2)
    Finneran- 1(0)
    RWhite- 1(1)
    Blakley- 1(0)
    Duckett- 1(0)

    New Orleans Saints
    The Saints always seem to play the Falcons tough and they also seem to playing well in their adopted home of San Antonio.

    I didn't get a chance to mention last week my thoughts about the McAllister injury. But as I wrote here in the Swamp the day after Duece's injury, the Saints have two decent runners in Stecker and Smith, but more importantly, McAllister wasn't really tearing things up anyhow. To me he looked a step or two slow in the Saints' first three games, then improved a little in week four against Buffalo, only to then fell apart in Green Bay. And as this game against Atlanta showed, New Orleans probably isn't going to miss McAllister too much this year. It's kind of like they were already missing him.

    The Saints do need to get Joe Horn back and 100%. He's a guy they can't afford to keep missing.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Hakim- 9(6)
    Stallworth- 8(7)
    Henderson- 8(4)
    Stecker- 3(2)
    Horn- 1(0)
    Poole- 1(1)
    Hilton- 1(1)
    Karney- 1(1)


    Minnesota Vikings
    How did this game get so out of hand? The Bears had 31 total yards of offense in the first quarter and the score was tied 0-0 with the Vikings driving into Chicago territory. The Vikes had already botched one field goal attempt when Edinger shanked a 52 yard try to start the second quarter. Minnesota then recovered a Bears' fumble at mid-field, drive the ball down to the 2 yard line, and then had to kick a 23 yard field goal. After surrendering 28 unanswered points, nothing that happened during their bye week kept them from sucking.

    The Vikings began three of their first eight drives at the 50 yard line and all they did with the ball was find different ways to not score. Looking back, I don't know why I picked them to win this week against Green Bay.

    Jerome Wiggins is essentially a wide receiver who was asked a long time ago to weigh 30 pounds more than he ever should.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Wiggins- 15(10)
    Williamson- 12(4)
    Moore- 9(5)
    MRobinson- 6(4)
    Taylor- 4(2)
    KRobinson- 1(1)
    Kleinsasser- 1(0)
    Williams- 1(0)

    Chicago Bears
    The Bears didn't do anything on offense in the first half until Bobby Wade set them up at mid-field with a 49 yard punt return. Chicago ended up leading 7-3 at the half, even though they could have easily been down 21-7. They have played so much better at home over the last few years, probably because they are eternally led by some kind of young quarterback. Orton again played well enough to keep the Bears in the game, but as I mentioned above, Minnesota had plenty of chances to take a commanding lead. This game was only 14-3 going into the fourth quarter. Yet still I picked them to win this week because they host a team that is almost a mirror image of themselves (Ravens). Key on the word 'host.'
    TARGETS(catches):
    Muhammad- 12(5)
    Clark- 4(4)
    Bradley- 3(1)
    Edwards- 2(2)
    Wade- 1(1)
    Reid- 1(1)
    TJones- 1(1)
    Peterson- 1(1)


    Carolina Panthers
    Ugly, lucky, and with a bye this week.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Smith- 9(6)
    Proehl- 9(5)
    Gardner- 5(4)
    Colbert- 3(3)
    Goings- 3(2)
    Mangum- 1(0)
    Seidman- 1(0)
    Robertson- 1(0)

    Detroit Lions
    The Lions defense played aggressive and fast in this game. They deserved a better fate but when it came down to it they were responsible for keeping Carolina out of the end zone on the game's final drive and they couldn't come through.

    The Lions have a good chance to defeat each of their next four opponents; starting this week in Cleveland. With the defense playing as well as they are, a change at quarterback may be all they need to kick start a 4-0 run. And it is indeed time for a change. Harrington just is not a play maker at the position and that Garcia is. After facing the Browns this week, the Lions are at home against the Bears, then at Minnesota, and home vs the Cardinals. They need to be 6-3 when facing Atlanta in week 11, cause they also still have the Steelers and the Bengals on their schedule.
    TARGETS(catches):
    KJohnson- 6(4)
    Pollard- 5(3)
    KJones- 3(2)
    Martinez- 3(0)
    MWilliams- 2(0) Vines- 2(1)
    Fitzsimmons- 2(1)
    Bryson- 2(2)
    Pinner- 2(1)
    Smith- 1(1)


    New York Giants
    The Giants were a +3 in turnovers during the first half but they were held to a total of just 6 points because they could not contain a strong Dallas pass rush.

    I have no doubt that the sun/shade spots on the field- caused by the late start time- causes problems for both passing games. There were numerous occasions where receivers could not track the ball in or out of the sun/shawows. Plaxico Burress in particular had noticeable trouble picking up the football.

    The Giants host Denver this week, and NY has scored 42 and 44 points at home so far this year. Their struggles on offense against Dallas began and ended with their inability to give Manning time to throw. Eli did improve in the fourth quarter by looking more for the underneath passess and towards Shockey.

    I wouldn't completely blame Brandon Jacobs for his late goal line fumble. Derrick Ward served as Tiki Barber's running back for all of the game until that play just inside two minutes. Why would the Giants' coaches put a guy in a position like that who's been standing on the sidelines for the last three hours. TARGETS(catches):
    Burress- 11(5)
    Shockey- 10(5)
    Toomer- 3(2)
    Carter- 3(1)
    Barber- 1(1)

    Dallas Cowboys:
    With Julius Jones sitting out, the Giants had little reason to fear the Cowboys running game going into this match and Dallas did very little to change New York's mind. Despite being one of the deepest teams in the NFL at the RB position, Dallas came out throwing and did little to establish a rhythm or balance on offense. If Jones misses more time, Tyson Thompson is really the teams best run option on first and second downs, with Barber coming on a third down.

    This was a real sloppy game on both sides; one that featured 8 turnovers. Through the end of regulation time, Dallas held the ball for 36:59, compared to NY's 23:01.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Johnson- 14(8)
    Glenn- 8(6)
    Witten- 5(5)
    Crayton- 4(4)
    Barber- 3(2)
    Campbell- 1(1)
    Thomas- 1(0)


    Houston Texans:
    I really did think the Texans had a chance here. They ran the ball well against the Titans last week and Seattle has a tough time getting pressure on the quarterback with just their front four. With Engram and Jackson still out, and following a big win against the Rams, I really thought this was a game that Seattle might sleep on. I guess not, and I guess the Texans are destined for one of those awful 1-15 type seasons. Good thing they get to face the Colts this week.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Gaffney- 13(10)
    Bradford- 9(4)
    Davis- 3(2)
    Wells- 2(1)
    Armstrong- 1(1)
    Rivers- 1(1)

    Seattle Seahawks:
    How many touchdowns does Shaun Alexander have in prime time now? TARGETS(catches):
    Jurevicius- 5(3)
    Warrick- 5(3)
    Strong- 4(3)
    Urban- 2(2)
    Stevens- 2(2)
    Alexander- 2(1)


    Three more games to cover tomorrow or Saturday morning.

10.19.2005
 
Wednesday Football
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Marvin Lewis may have outsmarted himself to start this game. The Bengals came out and tried to play a conservative, ball control road game in the first half. But with two minutes left, they were losing 0-10 and Plamer had thrown just six passes so far. So in their hurry up offense, the Bengals came out and ran 9 plays (all passes, all completions) for 79 yards and a touchdown. This Titans team is better than most think, but their one obvious weakness is against the pass and you've got to come out flying in order to beat them. And to second that point, Palmer completed 81.8% of his 33 pass attempts in the game.

    Chris Perry got 4 chances (run and pass) inside the red zone, giving him 10 on the season. That's second on the team behind Rudi's 17.

    The Bengals still have not found a way to keep teams from running up the middle against them. And they have to face the Steelers this week.
    TARGETS(cathces):
    Johnson- 9(8)
    CPerry- 9(9)
    Walter- 5(4)
    Washington- 3(2)
    JJohnson- 3(1)
    Henry- 2(1)
    RJohnson- 1(1)
    Schobel- 1(1)

    Tennessee Titans
    The Titans really picked up a couple of good receivers in last year's draft (Jones, Roby). And it's a good thing too. Tyrone Calico hasn't looked like much more than a 4th receiver this season. He was solely to blame on McNair's first INT that Odell Thurman returned for a touchdown.

    In only one game this season (week two) have the Titans tight ends, as a group, been thrown less than 11 passes.

    I'm not exactly sure who it was, but the play-by-play man covering this game for CBS must have used the word 'beautiful' to describe a pass at least 15 times, and I'm not exaggerating. At one point, it did so on four straight plays and only a McNair incompletion could stop him.

    This game ended with a real smart job of coaching on the part of Jeff Fischer. Down by 11 with less than a minute to go, the Titans were able to get a first down on Cincy's 30 yard line. And rather than spend more time trying to get a touchdown, the Titans spiked the ball to stop the clock and then kicked a field goal to bring them within 8 points of tying the game. Tennessee did not retrieve the resulting onside kick, but you still have to appriciate what that kind of winning attitude will do for a young team like this.
    TARGETS(cathces):
    Jones- 12(5)
    Bennett- 11(7)
    Kinney- 5(4)
    Troupe- 5(4)
    Brown- 2(3)
    Calico- 2(1)
    Roby- 1(1)
    Scaife- 1(1)

    ---
    Baltimore Ravens
    The Ravens finally played fast and physical on defense and special teams. For the first time this season, they looked to me like a hungry team.

    Anthony Wright played a smart game, but by no means was he a playmaker out there against the Browns. He did do a good job at getting the ball to the guys that need to get it most: Mason and Heap. The Browns could not cover Todd Heap. He finally looks healthy and ready to make a difference.

    Mark Clayton had an end-around touchdown called back by a holding penalty. The Ravens had 11 total penalties for 97 yards. That's 32 for 244 in two weeks.

    Dear Jamal: HIT THE HOLE RUNNING! You're dancing behind the line like you think you're Michael Jackson. Lewis was easily the third best running back on the field this past Sunday in Baltimore.
    TARGET(catches):
    Mason- 8(8)
    Heap- 7(6)
    Taylor- 6(4)
    Lewis- 3(2)
    Hymes- 2(1)
    Clayton- 1(1)
    Wilcox- 1(1)

    Cleveland Browns
    This game was a lot like the first three quarters of the Browns game last week against Chicago. The Ravens' offense was unable to score in the second half, but unlike the Bears, Baltimore's defense held up. And despite the final score, the Browns were competitive throughout this game.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Norhtcut- 9(4)
    Bryant- 6(4)
    Heiden- 5(4)
    Shea- 4(3)
    Jackson- 3(0)
    Droughns- 1(1)
    Green- 1(0)

    ---
    San Diego Chargers
    With an early lead, the Chargers played a real conservative football game in Oakland. They also used Antonio Gates as a decoy for most of the game; often throwing underneath his routes to Peelle, Neal, or LT.

    Keenan McCardell dropped an easy pass in the end zone. It would have been his 6th touchdown of the season.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Tomlinson- 5(2)
    Gates- 4(2)
    Neal- 4(4)
    McCardell- 3(2)
    Peelle- 3(3)
    Parker- 1(1)
    Caldwell- 1(1)

    Oakland Raiders
    The Raiders' defense started this game fired up and ready to stop the run. But their offense wasn't up to the task. Collins was forced to rush his throws thoughout the game.

    This team can still move the ball with Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel as their top wideouts, but it's really the play of their underachieving offensive line that is going to determine whether or not Oakland can get back into the playoff race.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Porter- 12(5)
    Gabriel- 11(5)
    Jordan- 7(6)
    Anderson- 6(2)
    Whitted- 5(4)
    Moss- 3(0)
    Zlemister- 1(0)

    ---
    Washington Redskins
    Another game is in the books where Clinton Portis looks great running in a single back set, and not so great having to find room behind lead blockers.

    The Redskins have done a great job at getting Santana Moss the ball where he can do the most damage; near the line of scrimmage or way down the field. Over last three weeks, Moss has been thrown 12, 13, and 14 passes respectively.

    Fox Sports brought in an interesting stat. After Tony Gonzalez drew a defensive pass interference call on the Redskins with 5:40 left in the first quarter, Fox noted that it was the first of such penalty Washington's defense has been guilty of all season.

    Chris Cooley really does a good job playing that tweener H-back spot for this team. And he runs faster than I thought he could.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Moss- 14(10)
    Cooley- 8(6)
    Patten- 6(2)
    Thrash- 4(2)
    Portis- 4(4)
    Royal- 2(0)
    Sellers- 1(1)

    Kansas City Chiefs
    With Willie Roaf back in the lineup, it was believed that Tony Gonzalez would see more opportunities to catch the ball. Over the last few weeks, KC has had to use their tight ends in pass blocking a little more than they are used to and it obviously hurt Gonzo's already slipping pass production. In this game, the Redskins often used three defenders to contain Gonzo, but on those downs #88 was left to run against single coverage, Green looked for him immediately.

    KC seems to be using more 3 WR sets than I remember them running in the past. And I wonder what happened to their high hopes for TE Kris Wilson. I didn't see him at all in this game.

    The Chiefs came out in the second half running a couple of different of screen passes and they ended up scoring on their first possession of the third quarter. Then on defense, KC came after Mark Brunnell hard until Moss hit that 80 yard flanker screen. Later in the game, the Chiefs scored the game winner on another screen pass, this time a 60 yarder to Holmes.

    This was a strong game from both teams and one that could have gone either way.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Gonzalez- 6(2)
    Holmes- 6(5)
    Parker- 3(2)
    Boerigter- 3(2)
    Hall- 2(2)
    Kennison- 2(0)
    Dunn- 1(1)
    Johnson- 1(1)
    Richardson- 1(0)


 
Tuesday Football
    Just a couple games tonight, as I work to catch back up:

    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Greg Jones was a surprise starter in Fred Taylor's absence (all indicators pointed to Pearman) and the former Seminole did a good job for the Jags when running in between the tackles. I know Jones wasn't happy when the Jags asked him to be a fullback this year, so it's nice to see him getting some time with the football. Alvin Pearman looked like he was trying to bounce the ball wide to many times.

    A few weeks ago, I speculated that the Jags would end the year with around 12 wins. I'm not so certain about that anymore. Their schedule looks relatively easy after they come off their bye this week, but I really think they should have been able to hand it to this Steelers team- without Ben, Ward, and off that big Monday night win in San Diego. 12-4 is still very possible, based on their schedule, but this team has further to go than I thought.

    Nice one handed touchdown catch by Matt Jones, but that's still really all he can do well right now.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Williams- 9(3)
    Smith- 8(3)
    Pearman- 5(5)
    Brady- 3(3)
    MJones- 2(2)
    Wilford- 2(2)
    Wrighster- 1(0)
    GJones- 1(1)

    Pittsburgh Steelers
    The Steelers tried to keep their pass plays simple for Tommy Maddox (lots of screens, quick hits), but he still managed to throw two first quarter INTs and the game-winning INT in OT. And their first scoring drive was aided by a long pass interference penalty on Jacksonville that was caused mostly because Maddux underthrew his intended receiver by so much, the Jacksonville DB wasn't able to turn and adjust to the ball properly because he didn't think the pass would be so badly underthrown.

    By the time the fourth quarter had started, the Jags had more than twice the total yardage as the Steelers and Pittsburgh's two big plays came courtesy of their special teams (Randal El punt return TD) and Jacksonville's defense (aforementioned pass interference penalty).
    TARGETS(catches):
    Randel El- 10(3)
    Miller- 6(4)
    Wilson- 4(1)
    Morgan- 4(2)
    Parker- 2(0)
    Haynes- 1(1)

    ---
    Miami Dolphins
    On the Dolphins first drive, they ran an end-around with Chambers that went for 19 yards. Two plays later, they ran that same great looking reverse that went for 61 yards (Chambers would have scored had he not stepped out of bounds) in week one against Denver. This time, it would have be good for a 40 yard TD had it not been called back by penalty.

    I know Miami needs to work in Ricky Williams, but the difference between he and Ronnie Brown right now is great enough to consider keeping Brown at 20+ snaps a game.

    All three of Wes Welker's catches came in the fourth quarter.

    Miami's offensive line really struggled with the speed of this Bucs' defense.
    TARGETS(catches):
    McMichael- 8(3)
    Booker- 7(1)
    Williams- 6(6)
    Chambers- 5(3)
    Welker- 4(3)
    Brown- 3(2)
    Morris- 3(2)
    Gilmore- 2(1)
    Boston- 1(0)
    Heller- 1(0)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    The Bucs Oline has done a good job this year in both run and pass blocking, but the latter is in part because Griese has done a good job delivering his passes on time. Now that Simms is the starter, it will be interesting to see how their line will hold up when their quarterback becomes more indecisive, as young QBs are prone to do. They did pretty well against the Dolphins in the second half of this game.

    And for those that did not see Griese's injury, it was very similar to Ben Burger's on Monday night last week. But, obviously, the consequences of the hit were very different.

    Tampa Bay really dominated the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense. As mentioned, their front four had their way with the Dolphins line. This really is such an improved run defense with a healthy McFarland and with the addition of Hovan.

    Normally young QBs struggle the most on third downs, and the Bucs are a 8-10 play drive offense. This is going to be a tough trick for them to pull off if Simms has a hard time moving the chains.

    Backups usually look for receivers they practice with on the second team, and Simms found Ike Hilliard a couple of time in key situations on Sunday.
    TARGETS(catches):
    Galloway- 14(9)
    Smith- 4(2)
    Clayton- 3(2)
    Hilliard- 2(2)
    Becht- 1(1)
    Pittman- 1(1)
    Alstott- 1(1)

10.17.2005
 
Monday Football / Admin
    Sorry for crying wolf on the Texans there. I really thought they'd be able to run the ball like they did against the Titans last week. Thankfully, the loss won't put us any more behind in the picks competition (an average 10-4 on the week, assuming Indy wins tonight).

    I'll have limited access until Tuesday night, but the usual stuff should start back up then.


ON THE BEACH
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05/15/2005 - 05/22/2005
05/22/2005 - 05/29/2005
05/29/2005 - 06/05/2005
06/05/2005 - 06/12/2005
06/12/2005 - 06/19/2005
06/19/2005 - 06/26/2005
06/26/2005 - 07/03/2005
07/03/2005 - 07/10/2005
07/10/2005 - 07/17/2005
07/17/2005 - 07/24/2005
07/24/2005 - 07/31/2005
07/31/2005 - 08/07/2005
08/07/2005 - 08/14/2005
08/14/2005 - 08/21/2005
08/21/2005 - 08/28/2005
08/28/2005 - 09/04/2005
09/04/2005 - 09/11/2005
09/11/2005 - 09/18/2005
09/18/2005 - 09/25/2005
09/25/2005 - 10/02/2005
10/02/2005 - 10/09/2005
10/09/2005 - 10/16/2005
10/16/2005 - 10/23/2005
10/23/2005 - 10/30/2005
10/30/2005 - 11/06/2005
11/06/2005 - 11/13/2005
11/13/2005 - 11/20/2005
01/01/2006 - 01/08/2006
02/19/2006 - 02/26/2006


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