7.15.2005
 
2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - New England Patriots

Bill Belichick
Josh McDaniels
Brian Daboll
Ivan Fears
Pete Mangurian
Dante Scarmecchia
Matt Patricia
    Listed above is the entire offensive staff for the 2005 Patriots. This Patriots' Weekly mailbag indicates that either McDaniels (QB coach) or DaBoll (WR coach) are being groomed for the position of offensive coordinator.

    Regardless of who ends up with the job, the loss of Charlie Weis is not going to send this offense into a tailspin. The Patriots are way too talented to think one man- even Tom Brady- holds the fate of their offense in his balance. Bill Belichick will begin the season as New England's playcaller and if there is to be one area of the Patriots' offense that with suffer without Weis, I think it will lie with New England's ability to adjust to their opponents' defensive gameplan during the second half of games.

    How many times over the last four years did we watch the Patriots put the hammer on their opponents after half time? This Boston Globe piece from late last season has a few quotes that indicate Weis' ability to progress:
    Weis's innovative schemes have provided fans with plays that have been entertaining, risky, (mostly) successful, and occasionally head-scratching. One thing you can count on when you go against a Weis offense: Expect the unexpected.

    "I've heard [Miami linebacker] Zach Thomas say that numerous times," said New England linebacker Mike Vrabel. "Zach watches a lot of film. He's one of those guys who is at it until 9 o'clock every night, hoping to get an edge.

    "He's told me countless times he can't do that with a Charlie Weis offense. He knows whatever he's watching is something he won't see again."
    This team could go 10-6 with a monkey calling plays Tecmo Bowl style. I anticipate we'll see plenty of two TE looks, since New England now has Ben Watson, Daniel Graham, Christian Fauria, and Jed Weaver to chose from. I also think Corey Dillon will be leaned on even more, as things are not likely to go as well as they have during their back to back 14-2 seasons.

    Weis was New England's O.C. for all five of the seasons that Belichick has been the Patriots' head coach. Prior to joining New England, Belichick was in charge of the Cleveland Browns from 1991-1995. He went 36-44 with the Browns, and 1-1 in the 1994 playoffs. Belichick's offenses with Cleveland ranked 19th, 22nd, 18th, 20th, and 22nd in the NFL during those five seasons. He's obviously playing with a different set of toys in New England, but still there is merit for some doubt in Belichick calling plays. Wait, did I really just write that? Doomed.

    Besides Dillon producing a majority of the big plays, I've loved Deion Branch since he was with Louisville and I think he's got the skill to put up 1200 yards and 6 touchdowns. But Branch plays within such a large cast of receivers, it may be hard for him to get that many looks.

    There is one thing about the Patriots receivers that is clear: they all have a purpose on this team and they all do at least one thing very, very well. And they all will be coached to take advantage of what it is they do; whether it be the straight ahead speed of Bethel Johnson or Tim Dwight, the precision of David Givens, or the quickness of Branch and David Patten. The Patriots can line up tight, with three tightends, or spread out five receivers wide. There is no defense in the NFL that can matchup with all of these weapons and that is why the 2005 New England Patriots will be okay without Charlie Weis.

    One final note, David Terrell's signing with New England is a reuniting of the former first round WR with his college quarterback. These 1999 stats from the UM Football team show that Brady hooked up with Terrell for 61 receptions, 4 touchdowns, and 888 yards that season.

 
Baseball Daily
  • Jason Giambi has probably gotten advice, both friendly and not, from just about everyone over the past year and a half. But when Mark McGwire speaks to him, it matters:
    "He told me to move a little closer to the plate and said I was getting too closed with my front foot, since I usually set up a little open," Giambi said. "It's just little stuff that he notices because he's seen my swing since I was basically a kid."

    ...But McGwire will TiVo Yankee games and then refer to them when he chats with Giambi, who with last night's blast now has six homers in his last seven games.

    "He'd be an unbelievable hitting coach," Giambi said. "He really is good at that kind of stuff."
  • It was a little bit of a surprise to me that Troy Percival ended up back on the DL with the same arm trouble that put him out earlier this year. But there it is. The Tigers new closer, Kyle Farnsworth, has matured a lot since his days in Chicago. But, on a couple of occasions this year, I've seen him look brilliant for the first two batters of an inning, and then lose his focus when trying to get that third out.

  • The Brewers aren't forgeting their 22-53 second half record from last season.
    Yost met for several hours on Tuesday with Brewers general manager Doug Melvin, assistant GM Gord Ash and owner Mark Attanasio and discussed ways to get better. Yost said he could use more depth in the bullpen and more speed off the bench, and with Melvin on a tour of Minor League affiliates this week, the team could be exploring possible promotions from within.
  • Milton Bradley has had five straight days off swinging without a 'setback.' He could begin a rehab assignment early next week.

  • The Marlins designated Al Leiter in part because they have high hopes for LHP Jason Vargas.

  • Apparently, Jay Payton is representing himself better than his agent is:
    According to Payton, who was stuck behind Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon and Trot Nixon in the Red Sox outfield, he'd requested a trade two months before the run-in with Francona. Nothing seemed imminent, though, so when Francona made a move that Payton felt would cost him an at-bat during a game in Texas last Wednesday, he seized the moment.

    In other words, the argument with Francona was nothing more than calculated strategy on his part.

    "I saw a window to accelerate the process [of being traded], and I took it," Payton said. "It really wasn't that big of a big deal. It lasted about five seconds."
    Nice.

  • This Padres - DBacks series in San Diego is about to get nasty.

  • Marlins at Phils
  • Brian Moehler this season on the road:
    3-2, 40.2, 3.98, 1.55, .321
  • Cory Lidle this season at home:
    3-3, 47.1, 4.94, 1.46, .299
    There are a few Marlins who have a decent history against Lidle, but Jeff Conine owns him:
    17/30, 3HR

  • White Sox at Indians
  • Freddy Garcia on the road this year:
    6-1, 66.1, 2.44, 0.89, .204
    In two starts against CLE this season:
    1-0, 14.0, 1.93, 1.00, .180
    He needs to stay clear of Travis Hafner, though.
    He's 8/17 off Garcia with 2HR.
  • C.C. Sabathia is struggling a bit at home this year:
    1-3, 46.1, 5.83, 1.45, .282
    And in four home starts since June 1:
    0-2, 17.1, 10.90, 2.08

  • Finally, I'll be watching tonight to see if the Blue Jays keep the roof open for Hideo Nomo. I'm sure they will, and this should be an interesting start for Nomo to see how he pitches in an almost dome environment.

7.14.2005
 
The Deal with the NHL
    In one of the more predictable ends to a lockout in history, the NHL and the NHLPA worked for 10 straight days and for nearly 24 straight hours in their final moments in order to announce 'a deal in principle' on one of the slowest sports news days in the entire calendar year.

    Congrats folks, you managed to accomplish via this self-serving deadline what you were unable to do by working primarily for the good of the game, the good of the fans.

    I'll be back when the NHL returns this fall, as will many others, but the League and its Players have taught the world over the last 13 months a lesson we won't forget:
    Greed invades even into our sanctuaries.
UPDATE: For opinions and news, Off Wing is rounding things up.

 
Baseball Daily

I don't know to what extent the amount of this site's baseball coverage will decline, but with training camp less than a month away and with so many new issues in the sport of hockey, the national pastime ranks third in line on the Beach.
  • The Sports Prof has a nice piece up about a USA Today article on former first round pick Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals.

  • I slept through the All-Star Break, so here's a recap of the moves that took place:

    Colorado sent Preston Wilson to Washington for Zach Day, J.J. Davis and a PTBNL (or cash)
    Colorado sent Joe Kennedy and Jay Witasick to Oakland for Eric Byrnes and Omar Quintanilla
    Washington signed Mike Stanton and activated Ryan Church off the DL
    Oakland sent Chad Bradford to Boston for Jay Payton
    Boston activated Curt Schilling off the DL

  • Tim Hudson should be back Saturday. Mike Hampton on Sunday.

  • Teepee Talk has detail about the Indians' favorable second half schedule and their chances to make the playoffs:
    This season appears to be one in which the wild card team will need a win total in the low 90's. Minnesota is on pace to win only 91 games, and they are leading this race at the moment. However, they only play 14 more games against the Bottom and 23 against the Top teams. The Yankees are in a similar predicament. Of this group, only Cleveland has so many games against the cellar-dwellers, and if they can beat up on them as they should, then I can see the Indians finishing the season with around 95 wins.
  • The HardBall Times' midseason report on baseball win shares.

  • SP game stats of the night: ANA at MIN

  • Jarrod Washburn on the road this year:
    4-1, 73.0, 2.22, 1.33, .269
    Career away from Edison Field:
    45-23, 582.2, 3.32, 1.18, .233
    Career indoors:
    9-3, 93.0, 2.61, 1.23, .225
    And at the Metrodome:
    3-0, 27.0, 2.00, 1.00, .192
    Torii Hunter is just 4/22 off Washburn, but if Brett Boone gets a chance to play tonight for the Twins, he could look a few years younger. Boone is 14/43 (.326) off Washburn with 5 career homeruns.

  • The Angels face Kyle Lohse tonight.
    Lifetime against ANA, Lohse is:
    4-2, 36.0, 5.25, 1.75, .342
    BvsP:
    Anderson- 8/18, HR
    DaVanon- 5/7
    Erstad- 1/13
    Figgins- 3/10
    Vlad- 1/4, HR
    Kennedy- 5/16

UPDATE:The Angels are 20-9 this year in series openers and 10-1 in those games when following a loss. Anaheim lost four straight at home to Seattle before the break.

7.13.2005
 
2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Miami Dolphins

Scott Linehan
-entering first season with MIA
    Linehan, a former quarterback with Idaho, has been the offensive coordinator / quarterback coach with the Washington Huskies and the Lousiville Cardinals. While at those two schools, he helped guide Chris Redman, Dave Ragone, and Brock Huard to successful collegiate careers and eventually into jobs as backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

    Over the last three years, Linehan served as Minnesota's O.C. The Vikings ranked 1st, 1st, and 3rd overall in total yards during his reign. And while the Vikings' offense got most of its press off of Culpepper and Moss, the most important factor in their success was the team's ability to run the football.

    In 2002, Minnesota ranked eighth in rushing attempts, first in total rushing yards, first in yards per attempt, and first in rushing touchdowns. 2003 brought a little bit of a decline, due to the loss of Michael Bennett for half the season. But with Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams, the Vikes finished seventh in attempts, fourth in yards, sixth in YPA, and twelfth in touchdowns.

    Last season, the Vikings' offensive production declined in all areas more due to the losses at RB and along the offensive line than to the loss of Randy Moss. After being among the league leaders in total rushing attempts for the previous two seasons, the 2004 Vikings' offense ranked close to last (28th) in carries. That also resulted in a decrease in total yards (18th overall), even though their yards per attempt ranked 2nd best. Minnesota managed just eight rushing touchdowns in all of 2004 (29th), further indicating a total loss of focus in presenting a balanced attack.

    Nonetheless, for the last three seasons, Scott Linehan was in charge of one of the most consistent and explosive offenses in all of the NFL. So how much of this success is to be expected to carry over with Linehan to Miami?

    Even though the Dolphins will not name a starting quarterback until training camp, it's hard to imagine anyone but Gus Ferotte starting the season under center. Not only did Ferotte fill in nicely for Culpepper in 2003 when Daunte was injured, but even in a straight up competition against A.J. Feeley, I'd have to imagine Ferotte to be the winner of that battle.

    So assuming Gus Ferotte starts the season as Miami's quarterback, he's still not going to play on the same level as Daunte Culpepper. That's an obvious statement, but one that needs to be stated in order to go back to the fundamental element of Linehan's offenses: the ground game.

    Just as important as the signing of Linehan and Nick Saban will prove to be for the Dolphins, is the signing of offensive line coach Hudson Houck from San Diego.

    Houck has spent the last three seasons helping LaDainian Tomlinson roll out an average of 1554.3 rushing yards per year. And Houck has done it by working with a group of linemen most people have never heard of. Before working with the Chargers, Houck spent nine seasons with the Cowboys coaching Emmitt Smith, Larry Allen, Nate Newton, Erik Williams, and few other Pro Bowl performers.

    The 2005 Dolphins are probably going to finish the year ranked in the top five in total rushing attempts. It's not that Linehan's offenses use the run to set up the pass, it's that they use two runs to set up the pass.

    Plays are called based on how defenses are playing them. In Minnesota, that meant teams were focused on stopping Moss and Culpepper, thus the high average yard per carry in all three of Linehan's seasons with the Vikings.

    In Miami, can Chris Chambers and Marty Booker strike fear into the minds of opposing coordinators? I think certainly yes, they can. Booker is a physical, possesion receiver who has two 1000 yard, 100 catch seasons under his belt (okay one of those years was 97 catches). Chambers has probably been the most untapped resource at the wide receiver position over the last three seasons. He can stretch the field like a number one WR and he can go up and get a ball as good as any in the league- even as good as Moss. Also to consider is the possible return of David Boston to the Dolphins lineup in addition to one of the best tight ends in the league, in Randy McMichael, and I think this offense can be explosive enough through the air to keep teams honest about not overplaying the run.

    And forget about Ricky Williams for now. If he plays, how much he plays, etc., will all come out in training camp and the preseason. There will be so much coverage of it, I'm already sick of it. Just know that whoever runs the ball for the Dolphins will benefit from an fantasy friendly offense. And Miami, all of the sudden, is flush with good running backs. Besides Ronnie Brown and Williams, there's Lamar Gordon and Travis Minor too. All running behind two of the top offseason signings of the year, in Linehan and Houck. I love this lead from the USA Today:
    Nick Saban needed less than a month as Dolphins head coach to grasp a concept that the Chargers and Vikings decided to ignore this offseason.

    "There's a salary cap on players, but there isn't a salary cap on coaches," Saban said.
    I have a feeling this Dolphins team goes into December with a winning record. I obviously like the offense's chances to perform better than last season's 29th league-worst (yards) finish. And Saban brings with him that tough, defensive mindset that will carry throughout the entire team. Last year's biggest weakness on defense (the DL) is now probably its biggest strength; after the Dolphins added Kevin Carter, Vonnie Holliday, and rookie Matt Roth to go with Jason Taylor, Tim Bowens, and Larry Chester.

7.11.2005
 
2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - New York Jets

Mike Heimerdinger
-entering first season with NYJ

    This former Titans' OC (2000-2004) also spent five years as Denver's WR coach under Mike Shanahan. Heimerdinger won two Super Bowls with the Broncos and he helped coach Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith into simultaneous 1000 yard per year receivers.

    In 2000, Heimerdinger's first year with the Titans, Tennessee had high hopes for their offense before they lost WR Kevin Dyson to knee injuries. The Titans responded by giving Eddie George 403 rushing attempts that year but they still finished with a 13-3 record on the season.

    2001 brought back more balance to the Titans' offense, and their passing attacked finished the season ranked 5th best in the NFL. After catching for 895 yards the year before, Derrick Mason had his first of four straight 1000 yard seasons in '01.

    By 2002 and 2003, Drew Bennett and Justin McCareins began to emerge as WR threats. Yet, last year was the only year the Titans featured two 1000 yard receivers during Heimerdinger's time in Tennessee. So I don't really expect the Jets to feature more than one this year.

    From 2000-2004, the Titans never finished lower than 15th overall in total points scored (with an average ranking of 11.8 out of 31/32 teams). In terms of yardage, Tennessee also held an average ranking of 11.8 in offensive yards per year (again, out of 31/32 NFL teams).

    Philosophically, Heimerdinger's west coast offense roots are still evident. As noted in Heimerdinger's bio, "the Titans have ranked in the top five in the NFL in time of possession in each of his five seasons at the helm of the offense." But Mike brings to the Jets more versatility than did their previous O.C., Paul Hackett.

    As summarized here:
    Mike Heimerdinger says he subscribes to the philosophy that a team’s best defense is sometimes its offense. His goal is not only to score, but to maintain long, back-breaking drives that keep the opposition’s defense on the field and wears it out. While big plays are nice, six- and seven-yard passes and a solid ground attack keep both the chains and the clock moving, and that’s what running an offense is all about.

    “You just want to stay in a rhythm,” says Heimerdinger, the new offensive coordinator for the New York Jets. “You want to keep the defense running and keep it on the field.”
    Just like the Titans' offense was built around Steve McNair, the 2005 New York Jets will be built around Chad Pennington. The average passing yards for all Titan QBs over the 2000-2004 seasons is 3740.4. They averaged 24 touchdowns and 15.2 interceptions per season during that stretch. Last year's numbers for Pennington, when pro-rated for a full 16 games are: 3289.8, 19.7/11.1. So if Chad is healthy enough to stick around for all 16 games, he could easily eclipse 3500 yards for the first time in his career.

    Laveranues Coles looks like a lock for 1200 yards and 6-8 touchdowns (if healthy) while playing in the Derrick Mason role, but I'd have serious reservations about drafting Curtis Martin with Heimerdinger's track record for abusing running backs.

    One final note, I do expect the Jets' defense to stumble a bit from their top 10 rankings (4th in points, 7th in yards allowed) from 2004. And in turn, I think their offense will pick up a few more points to compensate. The Jets' offense ranked just 17th in the NFL in points scored last season, so there is adequate room to move up.
UPDATE:
I completely overlooked any discussion of the tight end spot in Heimerdinger's history- which is a particularly bad error considering the Jets made such an effort during the offseason to secure a pass catching TE.

Before trading for Doug Jolley, New York tried to sign Jeb Putzier away from the Broncos, but Denver matched the offer. That is significant because Jolley and Putzier are very similar players. They both run and catch much more like a true wide receiver and block less like a true tight end.

Tight ends in Heimerdinger's offense with Tennessee averaged 78 catches, 748.6 yards, and 4.8 touchdowns per season. Granted, that's the production for all of the tight ends, combined, but the Titans haven't really had a pass catcher at that position since Frank Wycheck's early days in the league; and even then, Jolley is a completely different kind of athlete.

It's hard to ignore the effort New York made to get a quick and agile tight end, especially when they could have just drafted Heath Miller with the pick they ended up giving Oakland for Jolley. But Miller is more in the Wycheck mold, and was obviously not the TE the Jets were looking for, and that has to be recognized in the world of fantasy football.

 
2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Indexef=

New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns

Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars

Oakland Raiders
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
Washington Redskins

*Okay, so I needed to start this earlier. This is the Beach's first year starting the NFL season and I misjudjed my timeline. We'll look to end the baseball coverage earlier next year, in order to focus on football in time to complete it.

In the meantime, look for Minnesota to be more than fine without Randy Moss. Look for Marcel Shipp to split carries with J.J. Arrington. Look for the same to happen with Michael Pittman/Carnell Williams and Stephen Davis/DeShaun Foster. Finally, the Saints will finish above .500.



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