Friday Juice

DISCLAIMER: I don't do basketball.

I'm so excited about the Coin Flip Challenge that I can't wait to get started.

  • Wizards +1 at Bucks - Washington is a 7-8 road team facing a Milwaukee group that's only 12-21 on the season. The Wizards have been hot, winning 5 in a row and I'll take them +1.
    Coin Flip Challenge Pick - Bucks
  • Suns -6.5 at Pacers - Giving away 6 and a half on the road is tough even in football, but the Suns are 15-3 on the road this year! Wow, is Charles Barkely doing well for them or what? Phoenix lost only their 5th game of the season Wednesday night in Utah so I'm picking them to rebound. Suns -6.5
    CFC Pick - Pacers
  • Hawks +10.5 at Celtics - Neither of these teams seem to be very good. Atlanta notched just their 6th win of the year on Tuesday against Milwaukee. They've had half the week to think about it and I'm looking for them to come out firing tonight. The Celtics average about 100 points for and against so I'm taking over 204 here.
    CFC Pick - Under
  • Mavs +8.5 at Spurs - Two of the best teams in the league here, with the Mavs coming off a loss on Wednesday. The Spurs average just 85.7 points against per game and have shut down the Mavs twice this season. But with Dallas looking to rebound, I'm also taking the over 199.5 here.
    CFC Pick - Over
With three out of four opposing picks, we've got a real rivalry on our hands.
Someone please drop a puck somewhere. (By the way, it has been difficult for the last day to have espn on and see "Breaking News: Players and Owners agree to......" but have it be about stupid baseball testing. Not that that's stupid, but it's still disappointing to see.

Thursday Juice
  • Marquette +2.5 at Memphis - The 13-1, 22nd ranked Marquette Golden Eagles go into Memphis facing a 8-7 Tigers team that has lost 3 of its last 5 and is 0-4 this year against ranked teams. And then there's all this controversy in Memphis. Marquette is an underdog in this one and they've only played two road games so far this year. Obviously, a lot of people thing that Memphis is the better team at home here, but with the controversy, I'm taking a chance on Marquette +2.5
  • Oregon +12/5 at Washington - Both teams lost to UCLA, but UW's was on the road and OU's was at home. These two have split their last 6 regular season meetings and 8 of the last 12 have been decidied by 10 or less. Oregon lost on the road to mighty Illinois by 17, so this is really a pick that IU is at least 5 points better than the Huskies are. Ducks +12.5
  • Niagra +4 at Manhattan - Niagra +4
  • More later if I get home and can't find any hockey on tv.
Current 2005 Beach ATS Record: 3-6.

UPDATE: The one actual winner I had this night, UCLA at ASU, didn't get put in because I never got to a computer during the evening. Nonetheless, it's for the best that I was without a winner because this is a perfect stepping off point for my new game. It has two rules: 1) I know so very close to nothing about basketball 2) I'm going to flip a coin to determine a secondary pick for each game I pick and I'm going to see who does better, me or the coin.

Thursday Football

Rams - Falcons Notes:

  • Football Outsiders has an article up about the Rams' performance on defense last week against the Seahawks. The author basically says that the St Louis linebackers are going to stuggle against Michael Vick's primary pass options (Crumpler, Dunn). He also comments on the Rams' defensive line:
    As bad as the Rams’ linebackers and corners were in coverage, I would like to point out another serious problem with the Rams’ defense Saturday: Leonard Little, who is supposed to be one of the league’s premier pass rushers, did next to nothing. Little is one of the rare pass-rushing defensive ends who lines up more against the offense’s right tackle than against the offense’s left tackle. Against the left-handed Vick, that’s an advantage, and he’ll need to put consistent pressure on Vick to keep him from piling up the yards against the Rams’ defense.

    At the same time, defensive tackle Ryan Pickett had a surprisingly strong game for the Rams, creating pressure and stopping the run. He’ll need to duplicate that effort against the Falcons’ T.J. Duckett, who is one of the best in the league at running for short yardage up the middle. For most of his four-year career, Pickett has been a disappointment. It could turn out that he’s their best hope for a second consecutive playoff upset.
    Little has certainly been inconsistent this season, probably a combination of his legal troubles and a lingering groin injury. Teams have also been able to double team him, but with the improved play of their first round DTs, Pickett and Jimmy Kennedy, the strength of this Rams defense is the front four.

    But I disagree that having Leonard Little attack Vick from the backside is an advantage. The key for St Louis' defense this week will be the play of their defensive ends on the other side, Anthony Hargrove and Bryce Fisher. That's because even if the Rams get a good push up the middle and around the backside from Little, what has really proven to disrupt Vick's timing has been having a Simeon Rice type push from the left side (offensively speaking) directly into Vick's face. Perhaps the Rams will flip Little and Hargrove in an attempt to mirror the success Tampa Bay has had containing Vick in the pocket. Either way, they will need a strong game from anyone who lines up at right end.
    “We have to force him to become a pocket passer,” Little said. “We can’t have him out of the pocket, throwing the ball on the run, or even take off running. Most teams try to do that, but most teams haven’t been successful. We need to try and do that.”
    So at least they understand what needs to be done. But they also know #7 had one of the best games of his career in against the Rams in Week 2, so knowing and doing are definitely two different things here.

  • More on the Rams' defensive revival here.

  • The Falcons' defense has been successful all season rushing the passer, but they really are at their best when they know the quarterback is dropping back to throw. So if Martz chooses to, he can probably get some big plays by calling a few delayed hand-offs in obvious passing situations. Atlanta's front four did a real good job against the Rams back in Week 2 and Jim Mora's 2003 49ers defense forced two Marc Bulger fumbles and sacked him 5 times in Week 2 and they also got to Bulger that season in Week 9 for 5 more sacks, two INTs, and another fumble.

    Overall this season, the Falcons' defense led the league in total sacks with 48. Clearly, Jim Mora, Jr. knows how to get his team to the quarterback and if the Rams do their usual thing where they drop back to pass more than 60% of the time, history shows that Atlanta is going to be able to get to Bulger a lot this Saturday night.

  • Both of the St Louis guards are coming into this game banged up. Tom Nutten is basically playing on one leg and Adam Timmerman is listed on the injury list as probable, but has been playing through some foot and knee injuries.
  • TJ Duckett took two weeks off to have minor work done on his knee and came back in Week 17 to rush 8 times for 52 yards. This Fanball report has him down to 242 pounds now (was 260) and I'm still looking to see how Atlanta will replace the loss of FB Justin Griffith in their passing offense. They haven't played a game that has mattered since they lost Griffith and I expect a big reason why they wanted Duckett healthy for the playoffs is because they are going to start using him and Dunn more often in the same backfield. The question with a move like that is always pass blocking, but I think it would be a great move on Atlanta's part to keep DVD on the field together as much as possible.
  • Another big injury question mark is the status of TE Alge Crumpler. The 264 pound tight end has been the favorite option for Vick over the last two years and if he's not able to make an impact on the field, the Falcons are in trouble. Mora's coaching style is being credited with keeping the Falcons relatively healthy this season but Alge missed the last two games of the regular season and he doesn't really sound like he's 100%.
    I've made the progression I would have liked to make so far, and I'm excited about getting out there. I'm telling you that I'm chomping at the bit. I'm ready to play. I can't wait to get back out there.
  • Michael Vick's hand concerns and flu sickness don't seem to be of any concern.
  • Remember, this Falcons team was 11-3 (7-1 at home) before it started resting players. They are facing a team that finished 8-8 (2-6 on the road). Despite what Bill Simmons says about teams entering the playoffs hot, this is not hockey nor basketball. I'll take a team who has lost their last two games like Atlanta or Philly has, over any other team in the NFC.
  • St. Louis has the advantage when they break out into 4 or 5 (Faulk) wide receivers. They didn't do much of that in their previous contest this season but they must realize now that Atlanta won't be able to match up personel-wise. So expect the Falcons to have something prepared for this. Whether they blitz 6 or drop 8 or 9 into coverage, their success against any Rams' spread formations will dictate the pace that the game is played.
  • The Week 2 contest between these two teams was tied 17-17 at the beginning of the fourth quarter before the Falcons ended an 11 play, 80 yard drive with a Warrick Dunn touchdown run. Atlanta then recoverd a Bulger fumble for a TD and added a 25 yard Jay Feely field goal to cap their 17 unanswered points in the game's final quarter.

Wednesday Juice

Unknown Column has opened the new year on a nice streak. He's at 16-10 on the season and has five picks for tonight.

I'm going to start getting back into picking these crazy basketball games even though I don't spend a lot of time following the sport. I do know how to read though and this will at least be an interesting challenge.

I've also dug up my old archive from last season's hockey picks. They are separated by months. All of that stuff was pretty much the reason I started this site, so until the NHL returns, I may have to start breaking rule #1.

But first...

  • #18 Cincinnati visits East Carolina tonight and is favored by 11. They've beaten the ECU Pirates 6 out of 6 times by an average 17.2 points. ECU has also lost 7 of their last 8. The only concern here is that the Bearcats host #19 Louisville on Saturday and they may be looking ahead. Cincinnati -11.
  • Also looking at Texas -4 at Texas A&M. The Longhorns have won 10 straight at A&M (30 of 33 overall) and they have taken their last two against the Aggies by an average of 15 points. I'm guessing the line is so close because A&M stayed with Kansas last week, 60-65, even though their 11-1 record has come against a weak schedule. Texas -4.
  • Lakers +1.5 at Denver - The Lakers got hot the other night against Minnesota and Kobe's back in Denver. LA has won 9 of the last 10 meetings here and Denver is 1-5 under their new coach. LA +1/5.

I can't contain my excitement.

Current 2005 Beach Record: 3-3

UPDATE: 0-3. Basketball, NO!

Wednesday Football

Jets - Steelers Notes:

  • The Steelers dirty little advantage at home:
    "(There's) no traction. It's dirt," Jets offensive coordinator Paul Hackett said after the Jets' victory in San Diego. "That's basically what it is. You have to be real careful. It depends on how frozen it is and how much snow there might be. There might be certain cleats we have to wear. You don't know until you go out and play on it and the receivers slip -- and that hurt us a lot, really, in the passing game the first time."

    Said Steelers running back Jerome Bettis: "If anything, it gives us an advantage. We know how to play on it."
  • I got a chance to watch most of the Jets/Chargers game again and I have to say that while Chad's diminished arm strength is still a big factor, I think he's been with it long enough now that he has really had a chance to get used to it. He didn't turn the ball over against San Diego and it seemed like he really had his great accuracy back in that game. All of his mid to deep range passes really hung up in the air, but he never put them into a dangerous position on the field. Pennington will always have that giant wind up, but it definitely looks like he's had a chance to get accustomed to throwing with his injured shoulder.
  • Plaxico Buress is rested and ready to go. Remember that he didn't play in the Steelers 17-6 victory against the Jets.
  • No matter who starts for Pittsburgh at running back, both Staley and Bettis are going to play.
  • Wayne Chrebet will play, John Abraham is questionable.
  • The NY post has 5 reasons the Jets can win this week. All 5 of them sound a little desperate.
  • Newsday has a much better story detailing Pittsburgh’s home playoff stumbles:
    The Steelers have either earned home-field advantage as the AFC's No. 1 seed or wound up hosting the AFC Championship Game five times since 1992. But only once - after the 1995 regular season - did they get to the Super Bowl. They weren't so fortunate in 1992, 1994, 1997 and 2001, when they were upset at home either in the AFC Championship Game or the divisional round.
    Um, what. Okay whatever. I’ll just keep reading.
    There are only 20 players from this year's team who were on the roster when the Steelers were upset by the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots in the 2001 AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh.

    "We're a lot more mature," wide receiver Plaxico Burress said. "Playing in that [2001] game, I was thinking this is how it's supposed to be every year. We didn't understand the significance of having home-field advantage and playing in the AFC championship. We already had ourselves thinking Super Bowl, and we didn't take care of that one game and it cost us."

    Cowher - like his mentor, Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer - has experienced his share of playoff failure. He knows that for all the achievements of the regular season, the ultimate measuring stick for a coach is what happens in the postseason. One Super Bowl appearance - he wound up losing to the Cowboys 10 years ago - just isn't good enough. In eight postseason appearances, Cowher is 7-8.
    The knock on Shottenheimer throughout the years is that his teams always play not to lose. That was absolutely the case last Saturday. Cowher seems to have a little of that on him too and considering he’s coming into this game with a rookie quarterback, it will be interesting to see how the Steelers manage this game.

  • This doesn’t really have an on-field impact, but Ben Burger is donating his $18,000 game check for this Sunday’s game to the tsunami victims relief effort. It was also interesting to read that all players get paid the same amount for their playoff appearances. I’m sure the payouts get higher as they go deeper into the playoffs, but still for each game, everyone makes the same money.
  • Last week, I broke down the Jets’ chances on winning against San Diego. I gave them 17 points on offense and that’s exactly what they had through the end of regulation. The drive log for the game against the Chargers shows that the Jets were able to capitalize on the one drive they got to start in Charger territory and it also shows that they only went 3 and out twice through five full quarters of play.
  • Lamont Jordan was a big factor in last week’s win and despite Coach Edwards’ sideline shouting match over who should be in the game, look for the Jets to use Jordan again to provide the offense with a spark. He’s not any faster than Martin, but he runs a little more downfield and he has the ability to turn the momentum of any particular drive. Jordan only got three carries in the Jets previous match against Pittsburgh.
  • Kevin Mawae and Pete Kendall held their own against Jamal Williams and the middle of the Chargers’ defense. They should be ready to face a similar Steeler defense on Sunday.
  • With Burress back, the Steelers could decide to test the Jets secondary like the Rams did two weeks ago. It’s a dangerous proposition with a QB playing his first ever playoff game, but it may just be the deciding factor in this contest. This is perhaps the best article I could find describing the matchup:
    In the Steelers' 17-6 win over the Jets on Dec. 12, the Jets used a 3-5 front a majority of the time. Of course, the Jets used their base 4-3, but when they weren't using that or the 3-5 they changed up with 4-4 and 3-4 fronts. Every now and then they walked a safety up and attacked the Burress-less Steelers with 10 men in the box.
    The Steelers still ran the ball. In fact, Jerome Bettis matriculated his way through a 10-man front for a 12-yard touchdown run to salt the game away in the fourth quarter.
    So were the Steelers surprised by the rare 3-5 alignment?
    "It surprised us in the sense they hadn't done it and then they did a lot of it," said Bettis. "We didn't expect that heavy dose. It made it difficult to pound the football."
    Was it troublesome?
    "At first it was," said left tackle Marvel Smith. "Once we went to the sideline and saw what they were trying to do to us, we made the adjustments we needed to to be able to block it. After that it really wasn't a problem."
    Was there one key adjustment?
    "Communication," Smith said.
    Ever see anything like that?
    "We've had teams go 4-4 on us," said center Jeff Hartings. "That's probably even tougher than a 3-5. But no I'd never seen a 3-5, not on first down."
    Do you expect to see it this week?
    "Yeah," Hartings said. "They've used it since then. I think they like it."
    "I don't have any doubts they're going to try it again this week," said Smith.
    The Steelers rushed for 120 yards that day. They've encountered only three worse rushing days this season. But even though the Jets dared the Steelers to throw, Roethlisberger finished with his worst day as a passer. His rating was a season-low 33.6. So the plan obviously worked. But can the Jets employ such a plan with Burress on the field?
    "Nope," said Burress.

Tuesday Football Extra

I guess, this place is pretty much becoming a "Colts for the Super Bowl" sounding board.

  • Here's more fodder:
    Q: Because of the nature of the position, most of that talk will surround (Colts quarterback) Peyton Manning. You’re confident he can handle that, are you not?

    Tony Dungy: He’ll be fine and I think our team will be fine. Most of the talk will be about New England the last time and how many times they’ve beaten us in Foxboro. It will be about Peyton’s record against (New England Patriots Head Coach Bill) Belichick and it will be about us being a dome team and how it’s going to be cold weather. None of those three things will have any determination in the game Sunday, but that’s what the talk will be.

    Q: Cold weather . . . you don’t see that as a big deal, do you?

    TD: It’s really mental. We can prepare for it. We’re going to walk around in it. We’ll have some chilly weather here, but with Jacksonville, there was nothing they could do. They couldn’t even simulate it and they went up there and they outplayed Green Bay. Atlanta did it a couple of years ago up in Green Bay. There’s no formula that just because it’s going to be cold the home team has to win.

    Q: Why can this offense work in cold weather? What makes it weather proof?

    TD: If the quarterback can hold on to the ball and throw it and if the guys can catch it, there’s really no difference. If it’s so cold and so windy that you can’t throw and catch, then it’s going to be tough for both teams. If that’s not the case, then you’re going to function well. I can remember San Francisco once going into Chicago (for the NFC Championship Game following the 1988 season) when it was so cold that you supposedly couldn’t do anything. They went in and killed the Bears with a precision passing game and with Joe Montana and Jerry Rice and John Taylor. They went in and said, ‘We’re going to get the job done.’
  • Interesting article from Pat Kirwan:
    I asked a few NFL coaches why teams don't seem to run the ball very well in the playoffs but still win games.
    • One offensive coordinator said, "Only the best quarterbacks are left when we get to the playoffs, and they have a better chance of beating you with their arm than by handing off."
    • A defensive coordinator suggested, "We are so wired to a team's running game after 16 games that we are very well prepared to stop most good backs."
    • A personnel man offered, "You get against a team like Indianapolis or Minnesota, and you can't score fast enough on the ground to stay with them."

Tuesday Football

I can't even read articles about the NHL anymore. Last night, I watched most of espn's Big Monday double header (Syracuse/Notre Dame - UConn/Oklahoma). I don't even like basketball (rule #1) but I at least enjoy the overall environment and passion of intercollegiate athletics. I'm planning on shutting off my cable tv for the months of February and March. I may even read a book or two.

More about the Moss thing:

It's hard to find a complete transcript of Dungy's press conference from yesterday. In addition to the majority of the quotes he's been getting, it's important to make sure this one gets included too:

"It’s not the kind of thing you want to see on national TV, but I understand what it was all about. Anyone who has played in the NFC Central knows what that’s about. The fans in Green Bay have a tradition in the parking lot after the game where they moon the visiting team’s bus. … I had seen it seven times because when I was with the Vikings, we lost to them seven times up there."

I don't personally pay much attention to stories like this, but it's a much larger issue now. It's become a question of 1) what is and what isn't suitable for broadcast television, 2) what is broadcast television anymore, and 3) who is best able to determine what can and can't (if anything) be seen by anyone willing to seek it out?

Memphis Bengal over at the Sports Frog:

Joe Buck of Fox and ESPN in general are taking well deserved shots over their hysterics, and I couldn't be more pleased.

Joe ("that's disgusting") Buck, who apparently is happy to collect for commercials lampooning such behavior is all of a sudden finding it hard to maintain journalistic cred. Good.

ESPN with Chris ("Randy Moss disgraced Lambeau Field") Berman and not running the fake-mooning on its initial SC shows on Sunday night backtracking one day later and running the highlights? Priceless. ESPN getting called out for having a show (Tilt) featuring a clearly implied blow job scene but getting its panties in a bunch over a fake-mooning? Beyond priceless.

Mark Cuban:

The last 2 days coverage of Randy Moss endzone celebration are going to go down in sports management and journalism school history. The media and people who made an issue about this are going to be embarassed for the rest of their lives with questions from their kids, their grandkids, their friends and their future peers.

We do live in interesting times. We are the first generation to memorialize everything that we do on video. We are entering the first generation that will able to search through all of that video and find what ever they want.

Future generations will thank us for the entertainment we are offering them.

Future generations will always laugh at the silliness of their predecessors. You think most 6 year old kids today will grow up concerned that their teacher is gay, or their boss is a woman, or their son-in-law is black (or white, or asian, or hispanic).

America's pants have officially become too tight for it's waist. It's time to accept it and go out to buy some new clothes. You are getting old.

Monday Football

Tony Dungy:

"I will say one thing about Moss ... probably no one in the country can appreciate what is behind that," Dungy said. "What happens — and if you play in that division, which I did for a long time, you know — when you leave the parking lot in Green Bay that's kind of a tradition their fans have. They stand next to the fence as the buses go out and they moon the buses.

"Randy has had about six or seven years of those guys mooning him as he's left after a loss and I think that was his way of saying, 'OK, appreciate the fun, you guys had your fun, here's a little shout back at you.' That's what that was all about."


Past Ten Posts
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Coin Flip Challenge - November

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