10.20.2005
Thursday Football
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The Week 7 Mirl Picks are out. I have a feeling that Houston pick from last week is going to cost me big time.
I'd like to also call out all these people who keep picking double digit favorites as their best bets. Guys, try picking someone besides the Colts and/or whoever is playing the Texans/49ers. So far this year, I've gone with KC, PIT, IND, JAX (loser), GB, and CAR as my best bets. And this week I reluctantly like Atlanta at home on Monday night (I'd rather pick a team that wasn't such a favorite, but I'm still the lone Atlanta best better- not all the picks have been posted yet though). I was tempted to go with the Steelers, but Ben Burger's health left me with some doubt. That's going to be one heck of a game.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons need to be worried about their run defense. Maybe they're missing Hartwell's presence in the middle, but for the second week in a row they were gashed by an opponents' ground game. Lucky for them, they get to face a banged up Jets team this week on Monday night before going into their bye week. Were it not for their fantastic special teams, the Falcons would have probably been blown out in this game.
TARGETS(catches):
Crumpler- 7(4)
DWhite- 4(0)
Jenkins- 3(2)
Dunn- 2(2)
Griffith- 2(2)
Finneran- 1(0)
RWhite- 1(1)
Blakley- 1(0)
Duckett- 1(0)
New Orleans Saints
The Saints always seem to play the Falcons tough and they also seem to playing well in their adopted home of San Antonio.
I didn't get a chance to mention last week my thoughts about the McAllister injury. But as I wrote here in the Swamp the day after Duece's injury, the Saints have two decent runners in Stecker and Smith, but more importantly, McAllister wasn't really tearing things up anyhow. To me he looked a step or two slow in the Saints' first three games, then improved a little in week four against Buffalo, only to then fell apart in Green Bay. And as this game against Atlanta showed, New Orleans probably isn't going to miss McAllister too much this year. It's kind of like they were already missing him.
The Saints do need to get Joe Horn back and 100%. He's a guy they can't afford to keep missing.
TARGETS(catches):
Hakim- 9(6)
Stallworth- 8(7)
Henderson- 8(4)
Stecker- 3(2)
Horn- 1(0)
Poole- 1(1)
Hilton- 1(1)
Karney- 1(1)
Minnesota Vikings
How did this game get so out of hand? The Bears had 31 total yards of offense in the first quarter and the score was tied 0-0 with the Vikings driving into Chicago territory. The Vikes had already botched one field goal attempt when Edinger shanked a 52 yard try to start the second quarter. Minnesota then recovered a Bears' fumble at mid-field, drive the ball down to the 2 yard line, and then had to kick a 23 yard field goal. After surrendering 28 unanswered points, nothing that happened during their bye week kept them from sucking.
The Vikings began three of their first eight drives at the 50 yard line and all they did with the ball was find different ways to not score. Looking back, I don't know why I picked them to win this week against Green Bay.
Jerome Wiggins is essentially a wide receiver who was asked a long time ago to weigh 30 pounds more than he ever should.
TARGETS(catches):
Wiggins- 15(10)
Williamson- 12(4)
Moore- 9(5)
MRobinson- 6(4)
Taylor- 4(2)
KRobinson- 1(1)
Kleinsasser- 1(0)
Williams- 1(0)
Chicago Bears
The Bears didn't do anything on offense in the first half until Bobby Wade set them up at mid-field with a 49 yard punt return. Chicago ended up leading 7-3 at the half, even though they could have easily been down 21-7. They have played so much better at home over the last few years, probably because they are eternally led by some kind of young quarterback. Orton again played well enough to keep the Bears in the game, but as I mentioned above, Minnesota had plenty of chances to take a commanding lead. This game was only 14-3 going into the fourth quarter. Yet still I picked them to win this week because they host a team that is almost a mirror image of themselves (Ravens). Key on the word 'host.'
TARGETS(catches):
Muhammad- 12(5)
Clark- 4(4)
Bradley- 3(1)
Edwards- 2(2)
Wade- 1(1)
Reid- 1(1)
TJones- 1(1)
Peterson- 1(1)
Carolina Panthers
Ugly, lucky, and with a bye this week.
TARGETS(catches):
Smith- 9(6)
Proehl- 9(5)
Gardner- 5(4)
Colbert- 3(3)
Goings- 3(2)
Mangum- 1(0)
Seidman- 1(0)
Robertson- 1(0)
Detroit Lions
The Lions defense played aggressive and fast in this game. They deserved a better fate but when it came down to it they were responsible for keeping Carolina out of the end zone on the game's final drive and they couldn't come through.
The Lions have a good chance to defeat each of their next four opponents; starting this week in Cleveland. With the defense playing as well as they are, a change at quarterback may be all they need to kick start a 4-0 run. And it is indeed time for a change. Harrington just is not a play maker at the position and that Garcia is. After facing the Browns this week, the Lions are at home against the Bears, then at Minnesota, and home vs the Cardinals. They need to be 6-3 when facing Atlanta in week 11, cause they also still have the Steelers and the Bengals on their schedule.
TARGETS(catches):
KJohnson- 6(4)
Pollard- 5(3)
KJones- 3(2)
Martinez- 3(0)
MWilliams- 2(0) Vines- 2(1)
Fitzsimmons- 2(1)
Bryson- 2(2)
Pinner- 2(1)
Smith- 1(1)
New York Giants
The Giants were a +3 in turnovers during the first half but they were held to a total of just 6 points because they could not contain a strong Dallas pass rush.
I have no doubt that the sun/shade spots on the field- caused by the late start time- causes problems for both passing games. There were numerous occasions where receivers could not track the ball in or out of the sun/shawows. Plaxico Burress in particular had noticeable trouble picking up the football.
The Giants host Denver this week, and NY has scored 42 and 44 points at home so far this year. Their struggles on offense against Dallas began and ended with their inability to give Manning time to throw. Eli did improve in the fourth quarter by looking more for the underneath passess and towards Shockey.
I wouldn't completely blame Brandon Jacobs for his late goal line fumble. Derrick Ward served as Tiki Barber's running back for all of the game until that play just inside two minutes. Why would the Giants' coaches put a guy in a position like that who's been standing on the sidelines for the last three hours. TARGETS(catches):
Burress- 11(5)
Shockey- 10(5)
Toomer- 3(2)
Carter- 3(1)
Barber- 1(1)
Dallas Cowboys:
With Julius Jones sitting out, the Giants had little reason to fear the Cowboys running game going into this match and Dallas did very little to change New York's mind. Despite being one of the deepest teams in the NFL at the RB position, Dallas came out throwing and did little to establish a rhythm or balance on offense. If Jones misses more time, Tyson Thompson is really the teams best run option on first and second downs, with Barber coming on a third down.
This was a real sloppy game on both sides; one that featured 8 turnovers. Through the end of regulation time, Dallas held the ball for 36:59, compared to NY's 23:01.
TARGETS(catches):
Johnson- 14(8)
Glenn- 8(6)
Witten- 5(5)
Crayton- 4(4)
Barber- 3(2)
Campbell- 1(1)
Thomas- 1(0)
Houston Texans:
I really did think the Texans had a chance here. They ran the ball well against the Titans last week and Seattle has a tough time getting pressure on the quarterback with just their front four. With Engram and Jackson still out, and following a big win against the Rams, I really thought this was a game that Seattle might sleep on. I guess not, and I guess the Texans are destined for one of those awful 1-15 type seasons. Good thing they get to face the Colts this week.
TARGETS(catches):
Gaffney- 13(10)
Bradford- 9(4)
Davis- 3(2)
Wells- 2(1)
Armstrong- 1(1)
Rivers- 1(1)
Seattle Seahawks:
How many touchdowns does Shaun Alexander have in prime time now? TARGETS(catches):
Jurevicius- 5(3)
Warrick- 5(3)
Strong- 4(3)
Urban- 2(2)
Stevens- 2(2)
Alexander- 2(1)
Three more games to cover tomorrow or Saturday morning.
- posted by jrf @ 10/20/2005 10:06:00 PM
