8.28.2005
2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Denver Broncos
INDEX
Mike Shanahan
-entering 11th season with Broncos
Gary Kubiak
-entering 11th season with Broncos
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It's hard to believe that the Broncos have turned Jake Plummer into a 4000 yard quarterback, but last season the former Sun Devil indeed finished fourth in the NFL with 4089 passing yards.
What the Broncos do on offense these days is fairly simple. They know they have to get Plummer out of the pocket as much as they can and the only way to do that consistently is to play action bootleg him to either side of the field. This works well with Denver's long standing run philosophy because opposing defensive ends have to watch for 1) the RB's cut back lane inside and 2) the QB's naked bootleg outside. For as well as Plummer throws on the run (regardless of if it's to his right or to his left), Denver can be a difficult team to defense against despite their fairly simplistic offense. It takes players with great discipline and field awareness to defend against them.
But when the games start to matter more, and the competition gets tougher, this Broncos offense is still very much a pony show. They have very obvious strengths and they have very obvious weaknesses and teams who play like that are very easy to beat in meaningful games.
Take for instance Plummer's splits from last season. When the Broncos were ahead by 1-8 points, his QB Rating was 116.4. And when they were ahead by any margin, Plummer held a 105.1 rating. That's when the Broncos are most able to get Jake out of the pocket and into open space. It's when they control the pace of the game.
But when playing from behind last season, Plummer's QB Rating was just 72.6 and when playing from behind by a wide margin (9-16 points) his rating sunk to just 67.5. By comparison, here's a table of last year's top six passers (yardage) and how they did in those game situations:
QB AHEAD BEHIND DIFF Peyton Manning 111.6 123.5 +11.9 Marc Bulger 98.4 88.7 -9.7 Trent Green 100.6 86.7 -13.9 Brett Favre 104.4 86.9 -17.5 Daunte Culpepper 121.3 101.6 -19.7 Jake Plummer 105.1 72.6 -32.5
Quite simply, if these Broncos are forced to deviate from their script, if they're asked to do something they are not good at, they will struggle.
Further the point, in the 1st quarter of games last year, Plummer had a 109.6 QB Rating. That number fell to 86.3 in the 2nd quarter, 60.0 in the 3rd, and back up to 81.7 in the 4th quarter. In games where the margin of difference was 0-7 points (in favor of either side), Plummer rated out at 62.2. When the margin was between 8-14, his rating was 85.5 and at 15+ points, Plummer was at 108.7. These are all very troubling numbers for anyone who wants to believe the Denver Broncos can succeed with Jake Plummer and the way this offense is designed.
On the bright side, he should again make a pretty good fantasy quarterback. In only two games last season did he fail to throw for 200 yards or more. And in nine games did he throw for 2 or more touchdowns. Plummer is playing for a coach whose teams have finished, on average, 6th in the league in total yards and 7th total points over the last 10 years with the Broncos.
Wide receiver Ashlie Lelie averaged 20.1 yards per catch last season and he's progressed nicely as one of the best deep threats in the NFL. But he doesn't have much more upside than 60-65 catches a year unless he gets traded to Minnesota any time soon. Rod Smith is an 11 year veteran, but still looks strong. He's been a 1000 yard lock for the last eight years.
Last year, Shannahan was high on Darius Watts coming out of college, but its clear that Watts doesn't have ball skills to be a dependable deep threat or the size and hands to be a solid option over the middle. He'll likely be a third receiver until he's able to show the team something more, but right now, he's battling with Jerry Rice for that role.
The Broncos are spending $12.5 million over 5 years to keep Jeb Putzier around but they also brought in Stephen Alexander to block and catch passes from the tight end spot. Both are a little undersized but will be used frequently in the passing game. I'd downgrade whatever upside Putzier showed last year because of Alexander's presence.
At running back, Mike Anderson looks to have a lead on the spot after enjoying a great effort in the Broncos' third preseason game against the Colts. Tatum Bell is of course more talented, but much like the situation in Cleveland, I feel the team will go with the more consistent runner in the long run.
For the most part, however, I wouldn't consider any of these Broncos in my long term fantasy football plans. Denver faces Baltimore in week 14 and then travels to Buffalo in week 15. So if you got em, trade em early.
- posted by jrf @ 8/28/2005 12:37:00 PM
