8.28.2005
2005 Fantasy Football / Offensive Coordinator Preview - Kansas City Chiefs
INDEX
Al Saunders
-entering 5th season with Cheifs
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The AFC West is a rather predictable division to write about because each of its four teams are coached and managed by men who have been in the NFL for many, many years. They each have a extensive record of winning and also a well defined philosophy on how they wish to get there.
As the Chiefs begin their fifth season under Dick Vermeil and Al Saunders, they bring with them an offense that has finished no lower than 5th in total yards in the last four years. Anchored by an offensive line that averages 309 lbs and nine years of experience among its starters, Kansas City finished last year first in total yards, first in first downs per game, third in average gain per offensive play, third in third down efficiency, second in points per game, and third in time of possession. There really is not much room for improvement there.
Trent Green ended the season with 4591 yards passing (2nd best) and the duo of Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes combined for 316 carries, 1473 yards, and 23 touchdowns. When you add in backup Derrick Blaylock's 539 yards and 8 touchdowns on 118 carries, the total rises to 434 - 2012 - 31.
Obviously, this is a piece of fantasy pie that you should want to be a part of. Yet, espn's live draft results currently list Holmes' average draft position at 3.9. Now that Blaylock is in New York, it's much easier to handcuff Johnson to Holmes and still ensure yourself of 1500 yards and 20 touchdowns. Johnson is being picked around 89th, so in a ten team league, you're having to use a first and a eighth round pick to get that production. In competitive leagues, Johnson should be going as early as the fourth round- once all of the sure RBs are taken. So, the question is: are they worth it?
Personally, I value picks 5-8 as the most important because the chances of you getting a good player from 1-4 are much higher than they are at 5-8. As a result, it's in that area where good teams make their mark. Last year, 5-8 is where you got guys like Javon Walker, Mushin Muhammad, Willis McGahee, Jerome Bettis, and Antonio Gates. So I'd personally answer the Johnson/Holmes question with a 'no' because I'm trying to hit homeruns with those middle round picks, not handcuff my running backs. But there's absolutely nothing wrong with going the KC RB route, just make sure it's in your plans to get both.
One last note on Johnson, this quote is from a Kansas City Star article dated just this past Friday, 26 August 2005:
“I’ve still got an attitude problem,” [Johnson] said. “I still feel the same I’ve always felt. I see the draft, I see guys like Cedric Benson, Carnell Williams, all those guys who have a chance to be starters on their teams. I’m just looking for my chance.I understand his point, but Yikes.
“I don’t want to waste three or four years of my prime running behind somebody, period. I don’t care who it is. I feel like I should start somewhere in this league.”
With Antonio Gates' situation, Tony Gonzalez is still the number one tight end being picked but I feel that this is an error on the part of the drafting public. Gonzo is coming off career numbers (102 - 1258 - 7) and he'll be sharing catches with TE prospect Kris Wilson, a guy the Chiefs really liked prior to last season and before Wilson broke his left fibula (more on Kris here). Gonzalez has also missed camp time due to a broken finger (click here to see a nice pic of him trying to catch a ball with a cast on his right hand).
In each of his last five seasons, Gonzo has averaged 12.9, 12.6, 12.3, 12.9, and 12.3 yards per catch. Over that same time, his catches have varied greatly: 93, 73, 63, 71, and then last year's 102. This season, I'd put him around 75 again, meaning he should have around 950 yards. I'll get into this when I get to the Chargers, but remeber that Gates only played in 15 games last year too and he still did pretty well. So if you like taking tight ends early, why would you ever pick Gonzalez before Gates?
At wide receiver, Eddie Kennison is a product of the system and I would never waste a draft pick on him. Last year's numbers (62 - 1086 - 8) were all career highs, except for his TD count. Kennison picked up 9 in his first year in the league, but he only had 15 total in the 7 combined years between that year and 2004. So basically, he's probably going to regress. The guy I do like here, because you'll be able to get him at such a low value, is Sammie Parker. He's starting opposite Kennison now that Johnie Morton is no longer with the team. Parker was the team's fourth round pick in 2004 and he's a speed guy from Oregon who could be a quality WR for teams in deep leagues or teams that start three or four WRs. He's looked good so far this pre-season, and I'd imagine 50 catches, 800 yards, and maybe 6 TDs from him this year.
The biggest change for the Chiefs coming into this season is obviously on their defense. It's still not good enough to draft in fantasy leagues, but an improved effort on their part will have an impact on the offense. Most significantly, on Trent Green's production. He threw a career high 556 passes last year and completed 66.4 percent of them. The team also did well in controlling the clock and keeping their defense off the field, but they still gave up the most passing yards in the league. Assuming that improves, they'll be running the ball more- or at least they won't have to throw so many passes. Green may get close to 4000 again this year, but his overall numbers will be closer to his 2002 and 2003 production: somewhere around 3800 - 25 - 13. Still very good, but not good enough to take in the third or fourth round.
- posted by jrf @ 8/28/2005 03:29:00 PM
