2004-2002 New England Patriots versus 'mobile quarterbacks':

2004 - Conference Playoff - 41-27 at Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger 14/24 226 2-3, sacked 1 time. 5 rushes for 45 yards.

2004 - Week 12 - 20-3 vs Baltimore

Kyle Boller 15/35 93 0-1, sacked 4 times. 2 rushes for 10 yards.

2004 - Week 8 - 20-34 at Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger 18/24 196 2-0, sacked 0 times. 5 rushes for 3 yards.

2004 - Week 5 - 24-10 vs Miami

Jay Fiedler 20/41 251 1-1, sacked 3 times. 3 rushes for 6 yards.

2004 - Week 2 - 23-12 at Arizona

Josh McCown 13/29 160 0-2, sacked 5 times. 3 rushes for 19 yards.

2003 - Super Bowl - 32-29 vs Carolina

Jake Delhomme 16/33 323 3-0, sacked 4 times. No rushes.

2003 - Divisional Playoff - 17-14 vs Tennessee

Steve McNair 18/26 210 1-1, sacked 3 times. 2 rushes for 11 yards.

2003 - Week 14 - 12-0 vs Miami

Jay Fiedler 13/31 111 0-2, sacked 5 times. No rushes.

2003 - Week 11 - 12-0 vs Dallas

Quincy Carter 20/36 210 0-3, sacked 1 time. 6 rushes for 33 yards.

2003 - Week 7 - 19-13 at Miami

Jay Fiedler 20/35 230 1-2, sacked 1 time. 1 rush for 5 yards.

2003 - Week 5 - 38-30 vs Tennessee

Steve McNair 23/45 391 0-1, sacked 2 times. 6 rushes for 18 yards, 2 TDs.

2003 - Week 2 - 31-10 at Philadelphia

Donovan McNabb 18/46 186 0-2, sacked 7 times. 6 rushes for 53 yards.

2002 - Week 17 - 27-24 vs Miami

Jay Fiedler 11/25 110 1-0, sacked 2 times. 2 rushes for 9 yards.

2002 - Week 15 - 7-24 at Tennessee

Steve McNair 11/24 136 0-1, sacked 0 times. 6 rushes for 49 yards, 2 TDs.

2002 - Week 12 - 24-17 vs Minnesota

Daunte Culpepper 24/49 272 2-0, sacked 3 times. 5 rushes for 59 yards.

2002 - Week 11 - 20-27 at Oakland

Rich Gannon 26/38 297 0-1, sacked 1 time. 5 rushes for 15 yards, 1 TD.

2002 - Week 6 - 10-28 vs Green Bay

Brett Favre 17/27 147 3-0, sacked 1 time. 1 rush for 5 yards.

2002 - Week 5 - 13-26 at Miami

Jay Fiedler 17/27 190 2-0, sacked 1 time. 3 rushes for 18 yards, 1 TD.

So, just like from Tuesday's analysis, assuming I compiled these stats correctly, there are some things to be learned from this.

First, I define a 'mobile quarterback' as someone who can escape pressure and still be a threat to throw on the run. Or, in other words, someone the Patriots can't predict where he'll end up at the end of each pass play.

2004 record: 5-0, average points against: 17.2
2003 record: 7-0, average points against: 13.7
2002 record: 2-4, average points against: 24.3
Three year total: 14-4, average points against: 18.2

It's too bad the 2002 Patriots were just an average team, because during that season they faced Culpepper, Gannon, McNair, and Favre. New England's 2003 and 2004 schedule is filled with too many McCown's and Carter's and Boller's. There is one quarterback who the Patriots have faced 3 times in the last 3 years that draws my interest: Steve McNair.

In those three games, McNair's combined numbers are: 52/95 737 1-3, 5 sacks, 14-71, 3 TDs rushing.
Averaged out, his per game performance across those three is: 17.3/31.6 245.6, 1.6 sacks, 4.6-23.6 1 TD rushing.
McNair doesn't have the speed that McNabb does, but Donovan is at a similar point in his career as Steve was when he faced the Patriots in 2003.

Another interesting comparison is to look at Rich Gannon's numbers against the Pats. The Raiders were successful in that 2002 Week 11 game in Oakland and also should have beaten New England in the 2001 Divisional Playoff Game; also known as the 'tuck rule' game. That Oakland team ran a very similar offense to the one the Patriots will see in Jacksonville next Sunday.

2004-2002 'Mobile QB' per game average versus Patriots:

17.4/33 completions/attempts
207.7 passing yards
1 - 1.1 TD-INT ratio
2.4 times sacked
3.3 rushes for 19.8 yards and .3 TDs

2004-2004 Regular Season QB per game passing averages versus Patriots:

19.9/35.1 completions/attempts
204.4 passing yards
1.1 - 1.4 TD-INT ratio
2.5 times sacked

Note of variance: This average is from the '02-'04 regular season totals, including those games included in the 'mobile QB' average. Also, the 'mobile QB' average is from both regular and post season games.

- posted by jrf @ 1/27/2005 03:09:00 PM