12.03.2004
 
Friday Football

This is a place where you'll never have to read a word about Ricky Williams' retirement or Barry Bond's suspected use of muscle enhancers. (Other than the previous statement, naturally).
  • Two sources reporting to Jacksonville's Times-Union publication are saying that Urban Meyer will accept the UF coaching job.
  • Stephen Jackson will start at RB for the Rams this week.
  • The Steelers will probably ease Duce Staley back into the mix. Plaxico Burress is expected to play as well, but just judging how Randy Moss has struggled to come back from his hamstring injury, I'm not expecting much.
  • Tood Heap also is expected to return Sunday, but on a limited basis.
  • Jamal Lewis says he's out.
  • Andre and Andra Davis are on the IR now.
  • Trent Green not sure if he'll play this week. Who's the back up there? Holy cow. Todd Collins and Damon Huard? How does one decide who's the backup and who's the emergency QB? If either is in the game, it's pretty much an emergency.
  • Chris Brown will be a gametime decision.
  • Lee Suggs is questionable again this week. He's more than just a sophomore slumper. He's a bust.
  • Picks: CBS - Peter King - Fox Sports - PFBW - Simmons - ESPN - Yahoo

12.02.2004
 
Thursday Juice

I'm away from the home base this weekend, but I have lots of picks. I guess the TiVo will be working overtime for the next few days.

  • Toledo +2 vs Miami, Ohio - Last Tuesday I watched the Rockets fall 7-27 at halftime to rival Bowling Green. Sure, being at home helped them comeback in the second half to win 49-41 (28-0 in the third quarter), but to me, this looked like the kind of game that could propel a team to at least two or three more victories. Tonight's game against Miami is for the MAC Championship. Exaclty one month ago, the Rockets suffered a 16-23 road loss to the RedHawks. But even though Miami is listed as the home team here, tonight's game takes place in Ford Field, Detroit. This is the fifth appearance for Toledo in the MAC championship game in the last eight years, but their only win in that time was a 2001 victory against Marshall. Toledo QB Bruce Gradkowski brings a 70.5 completion percentage and a 23-7 TD/INT ratio into this game but faces a Miami defense that is not exactly a pushover. The outcome of this one will probably be decided by whether or not the Rockets defense can hold Josh Betts and the RedHawk offense to under 30 points. If Toledo can get a couple of key turnovers, I think they can take the title. Preview

  • Virginia Tech +7 at Miami - Even though the ACC won't have an official title game until 2005, the gods have smiled upon them here. Saturday's game will be the de facto ACC Title game and it will, oddly enough, feature two former Big East teams. The Hoakies have been on an absolute roll lately, winning seven in a row and looking especially good in their last two victories. I don't worry too much about Tech having to go into the Orange Bowl to play this game because they've been there so many times before. It's also a 1pm kickoff and I think that lessens the impact of having to play in a hostile environment. The Canes really pounded Wake Forest two weeks ago and have had an extra week to prepare. So I don't know if the Hoakies can win this one outright, but I like the seven points they're getting. When Miami, and specifically Brock Berlin, has had problems in the past, it's because they give away too many possessions on turnovers and poor execution. Virginia Tech has always been the kind of team that makes opponents pay for their mistakes. I'll take the hit and buy the extra half point to make this one 7.5. Preview

  • Colorado +21.5 vs Oklahoma - How many back door and near miss covers has OU given up this year? And if there's been one criticism about this Sooners' team it's that they've given up too much through the air. CU's quarterback Joel Klatt has NFL caliber accuracy and should make some plays in this game. In their past three games, the Buffaloes have used a balanced offense to beat Kansas, Kansas State, and Nebraska to win the Big 12 North. There's no doubt that the Sooners will be determined not to repeat last year's Big 12 disaster, so I'm a little concerned with picking against them. But as much as I was disappointed with Iowa State's loss to Mizzou last week, the silver lining I took from it was thinking that out of all the teams in the North, Colorado probably has the best chance to stay with Oklahoma. We'll see if that's true. Preview

  • Pitt -7 at USF - This is a rescheduled game from the visit Hurricane Francis gave Florida back in early September. And it's an 11am kickoff for the home crowd who normally gets their games at 7:00 or 7:30 pm. The Bucs are also in town this week and that should also limit the number attendees for this Bulls finale. South Florida is pretty much a one man show on offense (RB Andre Hall). There also seems to be a little too much looking ahead to their 2005 Big East debut going on with USF. They've given up 45 to Cincinnati and 31 to Memphis in their last two games. Meanwhile, 7-3 Pitt is playing for a BCS bowl bid and also has a little revenge on their mind.
    We still owe them. I have that feeling just like the rest of the seniors. We still hold a grudge. It was embarrassing to us the way they came up here and beat us that way. We still have a grudge and that's why even with all the other stuff going on we're only concentrating on South Florida because we still owe them some payback -- Pittsburgh safety Tyrone Gilliard, who was a freshman when South Florida defeated Pittsburgh 35-26 in 2001.
    The Panthers' attack through the air, and that's where USF's defense is most vulnerable. I was more than surprised to see this line as low as it is. Preview

  • Tulane +29 vs Louisville - Okay sure, another 70-7 score is possible. But then again, what does Louisville have to play for this time? The Cardinals have already locked themselves into the Liberty Bowl (against Boise St... a game I'm eagerly anticipating BSU losing big). So as long as Tulane doesn't paint a Cardinal logo on top of their Green Wave and then go out and bounce up and down on it before the game, 29 points should be a safe bet. Tulane lost its starting QB a couple of games ago but still managed to win by 4 points at TCU last week. Louisville will stay unbeaten, but 29 points is a large number to give a pesky 5-5 team like Tulane playing for bowl eiligibility in their own building . I think this game was rescheduled from a Hurricane too. Preview

  • Navy -13 vs Army - One of my favorite rivalry series of all time has been very one-sided recently. Navy is 8-2, Army is 2-8. Navy is on its way to its second consecutive bowl game while Army is just starting to turn their program around. A cautious note from Navy coach Paul Johnson:
    They [Army] are tougher and more physical. I think they really play hard. Fundamentally they do things better and I think what they are trying to do gives them a better chance to win. They are trying to run the ball. Their defense isn't on the field all the time.
    The last two games of this series have not been close, 58-12 and 34-6. This one probably will be so I'm staying away from the -13 and looking instead to tease this game with the Pitt game from above. Preview

Still to come... Auburn vs Tennessee, and MSU at Hawaii.
UPDATE: So I never got a chance to finish this list before I left, and it's 1:00pm on Saturday now, so I'll just past on the Auburn - Tennessee game. I do like Hawaii though, just from looking at the line. No research done, so it's not official. Still plan to have some more pro games later today or tomorrow morning.

  • Broncos +3 at Chargers - The importance of this game for the Broncos makes it easy for them to move past from their Sunday night loss to Oakland. When Denver faced the Chargers in Week 3, they got 25 completions from Jake Plummer for almost 300 yards. San Diego's strength on defense for the last few years has been against the run, but they have struggled to consistently defend against the pass. That Week 3 contest between these two teams was no different- with Denver getting only 37 yards on 21 rushes (a 1.8 yard per rush average). But that was back when Quentin Griffith was getting most of the Broncos' carries (he got 12 of them for just 7 yards). Reuben Droughns should fare better this time out and I expect Denver will be able put a more balanced offensive attack together this week. Bigger backs like TJ Duckett and Tyrone Wheatley have been able to average around 4 yards per carry against the Chargers this season, while smaller backs like Griffith have had trouble just getting back to the line of scrimmage. And even when Denver does throw the ball, San Diego won't have one of it's starting corners, Sammy Davis, on Sunday. Instead, the Chargers will give Drayton Florence his second career start at corner. San Diego's offense has left a ton of points on the field in their last two games. But maybe most importantly, Denver's defense has given up the least amount of fantasy points to tight ends this season; a stat that is impressive considering they've gone against Tony Gonzalez (2 rec, 17 yards in Week 1), Antonio Gates (4 rec, 30 yards in Week 3), and Alge Crumpler (7 rec, 86 yards in Week 8). None of those three were able to score a touchdown against the Broncos defense. In fact, they haven't given a single TD to that position all season long. Linebackers Al Wilson and DJ Williams are fast, agile, and physical enough to stay with the elite tight ends of the NFL. San Diego has a good team, but they don't matchup well against these Broncos.

  • Buffalo -3.5 at Miami, Jacksonville +3 vs Pittsburgh. But probably the best thing to do this weekend is 10 point tease the Colts, the Pats, and whoever else you like. Among those, you can get Oakland +11, St Louis -1, Minnesota +2.5, Detroit +3, and the Jets +3. So as long as the Pats and Colts win, everything will be fine. Hope, hope.

So far this season, I've gone 19-12 ATS in college picks and a pedestrian 19-18 ATS in pros.

UPDATE: The Colts/Pats strategy worked out to perfection. 4-2 college day after I badly missed covers on the two big lines of the week. 2004 College record on the Beach stands at 23-14, going into the Bowls. With the Broncos' push, the pro picks went 6-1 yesterday, increasing the Beach's record to 25-19. 48-33 overall. Say a prayer for the hockey negotiations tomorrow. That's where we make our living.

12.01.2004
 
Wednesday Football
  • Ahman Green returned to practice yesterday and is expected to play this week against the Eagles.
  • The Bengals are a better team in no small part because tackle Willie Anderson has decided to play through his knee problems.
  • Chad Pennington will be practicing this week, but it's uncertain if he'll start.
  • The Ravens hope to have Todd Heap back this week, but it seems like they've been saying that for the last 6 weeks. I've read a couple of different times lately this his injury would have been better had he just broken his leg. Ouch.
  • Thomas Jones' struggles aren't going to be solved because Jeff George has been signed. The Bears offensive line has been hit by injuries, and it hasn't adapted very well.
  • The Falcons have had a strange trend lately of jumping ahead of their opponents easily and then doing very little on offense for the rest of the game. They've won three in a row, but those games have been much closer than maybe they should have been.
  • The Browns website has a Q&A with their owner, Randy Lerner. Lots of single bullet theory here. "I don't know why he resigned. Maybe he was tired?"
  • Since the Cowboys are 'still in the playoff hunt,' Vinny will start this week. If Bill Parcells doesn't feel he has to answer to the media and fans about his QB choices, then why does he make up reasons like this? Last week, Drew started cause Vinny was hurt. But he wasn't hurt so much that he couldn't come in for the second half and lead his team to victory. Now, we're supposed to believe the Cowboys are making a playoff run.
  • Denver's talking tough in their recovery from Sunday night's loss.
  • Meanwhile, Drew Brees commented yesterday about what has changed since their Week 4 loss to Denver:
    Since then, we’ve learned how to make those plays (that lost us that game). We’ve been able to better recognize the situations where, as an offense, we need to go down and get points or we need to create some momentum here or take care of the football. A lot of things have happened since then. I think our defense has also grown. Then the fact that we have them coming to our house now—obviously, you have that mindset when somebody comes into your own home stadium.
    They also have Keenan McCardell to go along with their increased confidence.
  • Remember when Anquan Boldin had like 1500 yards after the catch against the Lions smallish secondary?
  • The Niners are sticking with Tim Rattay, despite his injury and recent struggles.
  • The Jaguars are just the kind of team that can beat the Steelers. They don't match up well player for player, but there's just that toughness in Jacksonville that could prove to be a tough test for Pittsburgh. Plus, Ben Burger owes Leftwich some money.
  • And while many have jumped on the 'Ben isn't as good as he was' wagon, that hype is just as puffed up as the 'Big Ben is Dan Marino' talk. But it is obvious to Bill Cowher that the passing game is struggling. This guy is a very talented rookie. A rookie with great poise and a great ability to throw accurate passes while on the run. But he's only thrown for 200 yards once and has not faced a team who stops the run like Jacksonville does since his first two appearances as a pro (one of which was against Baltimore, the Steelers lone loss this season).
  • A Patriots' beat writer discusses the implications of facing the Browns, post-Davis.
    A move like this could affect how the Patriots prepare for this weekend’s game, but Davis’ successor for the rest of the year will be offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie and since he’s already part of the system, don’t expect the Browns to add anything significant to the game plan that will surprise the Patriots on Sunday.
    The whole article is filled with solid analysis.
  • Luke McCown (Josh's brother) may be forced to start this week against the Pats. Coming out of college, many scouts thought Luke had more natural talent than his older brother, but maybe not the moxie.
  • A definition of the word 'moxie' here.

11.30.2004
 
Tuesday Things Other Than Football
  • There are those who are in favor of naming Pat Tillman in various sportsperson of the year awards. I for one am pleased that Sports Illustrated has selected the Boston Red Sox for 2004. Whatever value is to be judged of Mr. Tillman's heroicism and sacrifice, it has little to do with sport.
  • MLB's Hall of Fame Ballot is out. Darryl Strawberry? So, coke is okay, but just don't gamble?
  • Sports Blah seems to be the place to for off season baseball speculation.
  • The Sports Prof is keeping an eye on Joe Paterno and other college coaching changes. Specifically, the coaching vacuum that has been re-opened in Indiana.
  • Today's Lockout Log is interesting. Since they update daily, I'll archive it:
    The following is a daily log of the NHL lockout, which began September 16:

    TOTAL DAYS: 73

    GAMES ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR TODAY: 2

    GAMES CANCELED TO DATE: 638

    LAST WORK STOPPAGE: 1994 (103 days)

    NEWS OF THE DAY: As the number of canceled games continues to pile up, the two sides of the NHL labor dispute appear no closer to coming to an agreement.

    After a feature in The Hockey News suggested that the league may be willing to agree to a luxury tax, NHL vice president told TSN in Canada that it was not true.

    "We have said repeatedly that a proposal will not work for us," Daly said to the network. "A tax-based system is too unpredictable and the league's problems too severe for us to take chances on the future of the game."

    In other off-the-ice news, Atlanta Thrashers star Dany Heatley, who is charged with vehicular homicide in the death of teammate Daniel Snyder, appeared in a pretrial hearing Monday, and The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that a plea bargain is not imminent in the case.

    "I believe this case, at this point, appears to be heading to a trial," Heatley's lawyer Ed Garland said.

    WHERE ARE THEY NOW?: New Jersey Devils center John Madden became the 287th player to sign with a European team Monday, when he agreed to play with HIFK Helsinki of the Finnish League.

    Three other players, Washington center Jeff Halpern, Los Angeles center Sean avery and Chicago center Tyler Arnason, all left their European clubs Monday.
    At least people are talking about what they thinking. That's more than we had a month ago. The Hockey News story mentioned I believe is this one.
  • Go here and watch Ales Hemsky skate. He's good.
  • Don't forget that Ken Jennings loses tonight on Jeopardy. If you want to know the Final Jeopardy question he misses, go here.
  • I like this post about baseball juicing from Swing and a Miss.

11.29.2004
 
Monday Football
  • Sportsline's Clark Judge writes today:
    Arizona coach Dennis Green is suffering a fair punishment for pulling a quarterback at the worst possible moment. I'm talking, of course, of his decision to lift Josh McCown after the Cards won three of four and climbed into the NFC West race. I don't care what McCown's numbers were; you don't mess with something that's going well, and maybe Green recognizes it now. The Cards are 0-2 since Green made the move, scoring one touchdown in two games.
    Judge also spends a little time on the Seahawks. He thinks that the disastrous loss to the Rams in Week 5 is what has ruined their season.
    Seattle hasn't been right since that Oct. 10 loss, and these last three games prove it. The club hemorrhages yards and can't stop crucial third downs, with opponents a combined 20-for-43 the past three weeks -- and, remember, that includes a Miami team that couldn't find the end zone with a Sherpa.

    And the first three weeks? Ah, that's when Seattle was in playoff shape. Opponents were a combined 9-for-42 on third downs, with nobody producing more than 281 yards. All I know is the Seahawks opened the year with three straight wins. Then they were on the verge of putting away St. Louis, and, poooof, just like that, the season disappeared.
    I couldn't disagree more. At what point this season was this team ever good enough to consider their current failures as a fall from grace? Judge says Seattle was in 'playoff shape' during the first three weeks. Wins against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco - no matter the margain of difference - are not indicators of a playoff bound team. I mentioned this briefly back in late September mostly because Seattle had a similar start to 2003 and struggled down the stretch. But what appears to be happening with the Seahawks now is a combination of injuries, loss of confidence, and some really very horribly bad execution. Those are the key ingridients to a disappointing season. Just ask the 04 Panthers and the 03 Bucs. (ESPN's John Clayton's take on Seattle here.)
  • Recap of yesterday here.
  • From Peter King's column:
    During the Colts' four wins in 18 days in November, Peyton Manning was at the helm of the offense for 36 drives; 19 of those possessions ended in touchdown passes.
    I like that King has also called out that Ben Burger has 'looked pretty mortal' in recent weeks. He has. Another interesting note from King is in the Jets' last 34 offensive drives, they have gotten two TDs and 22 punts. I add that somehow the Jets have pulled out a couple of wins in games they probably shouldn't have won.
  • King also has a nice quote from Ricky Williams, as reported from an SI article by Mike Silver:
    At least I quit before all the fantasy drafts. Let's face it: If I'd quit after the drafts, the fans would all hate me.
  • PFBW's Whispers have news that Tyronne Poole could be back by Week 14. They also have this news on Onterrio Smith:
    The Vikings’ coaching staff fully expects Onterrio Smith to retain the starting RB job. Feeling they owed Michael Bennett an opportunity to take hold of the position at which he’s held rank for three seasons, Minnesota was disappointed Bennett didn’t make the best of his chances as the starter. Smith started in Week 12 and, barring any health-related issues, should stay there.
  • Julius Jones is not only a very good NFL running back, but he's playing for a coach that appriciates using a good back when he has one.
  • Travis Henry is out for the year.
  • The Sports Frog pointed me today to this article on the Broncos' loss last night in the snow. Denver writer Mark Kiszla calls this Broncos team a 'fraud' and says they 'still make the playoffs, but they aren't going anywhere.' I've thought all season that this offense is very smoke and mirrors but I got burned early on picking against them. Their defense is the strength of this team and despite what Kiszla writes, Champ Bailey is a good addition. Sure Champ did look bad last night- in conditions less than normal. My question is for the defensive coaches who think that Bailey can cover people one-on-one on nearly every down. Chad Johnson took him to school in Week 7 mostly because they were always lining up against each other. Dear Denver, there are some other very good playmakers on this team, stop turning your defense into a 'Randy Ratio' type scheme. Dear Kiszla, your Broncos aren't done yet. San Diego isn't playing particularly well either and could have very easily lost its last two games. They faceoff this week in John Lynch's hometown.
  • McNair is hinting at retirement.
  • Alge Crumpler has signed a contract extension.
  • If the new rage in the NFL is to find basketball players (Tony Gonzalez, Crumpler, Antonio Gates) and teach them how to run corner routes inside the red zone, why doesn't every team just hire a good basketball coach and teach every player how to use their body properly to gain position? It's amazing how short sighted people can be sometimes.
  • Yes, Randy Moss returned to action yesterday, but did you see how bad the hitch in his getty-up was?
  • Brett Favre starts consecutive game # 200 tonight. Be mindful of the status of Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport. The Rams are close to last statistically against the run (although they looked better last week against McGahee) and Green Bay will need at least one of those guys to beat St Louis. This is an interesting matchup because the Packers base the success of their defense on stopping the run without overloading the line of scrimmage with players. The Rams have no intension of running so they won't be playing into Green Bay's strength. St Louis has a banged up secondary and I think the over (51) is probably the best bet here.

11.28.2004
 
Sunday Juice

Forgot to make my picks in time to get the details in. So just for the record, Bucs to win, Texans -1, and a 6 point teast with the Broncos -6 and Pats -1.



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