Take advantage of the Friday specials. Things don't change too much before game time. Except the line and if it changes for your benefit, there's probably not a good reason.

With that out of the way, I will say that I can't seem to wrap my head around this week's games. I have picker's block. But here's what I do like:

• Boise St. vs BYU (-21.5) - I like this line at 20.5 instead. I'd buy it down if I was ever going to actually wager on it. But I agree with those that say Boise St. has something going this year. And I remember watching BYU and Duke a few weeks ago because it was on INHD. They looked boring, even in hi-def.
• Wisconsin vs PSU (-3) - Here's another one I'd be buying down. This one I'd go to 2.5. A lot of this game will depend on how effective Badger RB Davis is (if he plays). Penn State's LBs are always solid and they are usually tough against the run, but from what I saw last week, Wisconsin has some good options at RB after Davis. And in the end, I don't think PSU has enough experience to break this road losing streak yet. See yesterday's post about this.
• Arkansas vs Alabama (-5.5) - I don't think either team will be able to control the game on the ground offensively, and so with Bama QB Croyle out for the year, I'll take the R'backs at home.


• Bucs at Oakland (+3) - Going with another bad Florida team on the road on a Sunday night. At least the Fish covered last week. I'm thinking the Bucs will here too. I'd buy it at 3.5 and hope these two defenses keep it up. Who knows, the Bucs may even win one. Gruden strikes me as the kind of guy who gets a lot of motivation out of revenge.
• Skins vs Boys (-1) - Washington to win at home? Joe Gibbs? -1? The Sports Guy sums last weeks' Washington/Giants game up best here by saying it's like when you're playing Madden and the computer does everything it can to make you lose. After a week of real practice, hopefully Ramsey will understand which color jersey he needs to throw the ball to.
• Texans at Chiefs (+9) - Obviously, Priest Holmes' availability plays a lot into this. But I like Carr on the road, where he seems to really be allowed to throw the ball around. Is it possible that Kansas City can start the year 0-3 and 0-2 at home? Tough to say, but at +400, it's worth a shot. If Priest ends up not playing, you're loving it. And even if he does, +9 is easy to buy to +10.5 and almost guarantee a sure thing. Dominick Davis has a lot in common with Quentin Griffin and DeShaun Foster.

- posted by jrf @ 9/24/2004 01:54:00 PM